Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Runline | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 7.5 +105o / -125u | -120 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Runline | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 7.5 +105o / -125u | +100 |
George Kirby is part of a loaded pitching staff in Seattle and the Mariners seemingly have a reliable starting pitcher going every day. Kirby rarely walks hitters, forces hitters to chase, and most of the time, doesn't give up hard contact.
His opponent will be Ryan Pepiot and the Tampa Bay Rays. Pepiot has progressed well in the Tampa Bay rotation. He misses plenty of bats, but has struggled to keep the ball on the ground and to prevent hard contact.
Although the starting pitching matchup is relatively even, the Mariners hold an edge at the dish and in relief to give them a boost in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners
Kirby holds a 3.47 ERA against a 3.39 xERA and is performing just as advertised — walking less than 3% of batters with a strikeout rate above 23%. He's excelled with a chase rate in the 91st percentile and holds an exceptional Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate. In June, he's been even better with a 1.80 ERA over 25 innings in four starts.
The Mariners have had their issues at the dish this year, but they have hit right-handers well in June with a 116 wRC+ and 10.5% walk rate. While they're striking out more than 24% of the time, these collective numbers will play against a decent pitcher, like Pepiot and the Rays’ bullpen.
The Mariners’ relief staff should maintain a gulf between themselves and the performances of the Rays’ relievers. Only two of their arms in relief have an xFIP over 4.00, so their June relief xFIP is 3.65. In addition, they are walking more than 10% of batters but striking out more than 26% as a unit.
Tampa Bay Rays
For Tampa Bay, Pepiot has a 4.61 ERA against a 3.80 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is north of 90 MPH, and his Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 29th percentile.
He rarely keeps the ball on the ground, which could become an issue because Seattle doesn't have many hitters who will keep the ball on the ground. In June, he owns an ERA above 6.00, and this is mainly due to allowed hard contact with an Average Exit Velocity of 91 MPH. Even though Seattle hasn't hammered the ball much this year, it should continue its hot hitting against righties in Pepiot.
The Rays have fared decently in June against righties with a team 105 wRC+, 8.2% walk rate and strikeout rate of 24.4%. They only have five batters above a .320 xwOBA and two others above .310. Seattle has 10 above .310, so this is not much of a comparison.
In relief, the Rays have struggled all season but have made some positive strides in June. They only have three active arms in relief under a 4.00 xFIP with a combined xFIP over 4.00. As a whole, Tampa Bay doesn't walk many out of the bullpen, but it also doesn't miss as many bats as the Seattle relievers.
Mariners vs. Rays
Betting Pick & Prediction
Kirby is the better starter lately, so backing him makes sense with a dose of consistency that isn't seen in MLB. The Seattle bullpen has been spectacular recently, and it has actually hit pretty well against righties like Pepiot.
Take the Mariners to win this one on the road. This line isn't giving enough credit to how well Kirby has pitched in comparison to Pepiot. It also does not seem to consider that the Mariners can throw out of the bullpen. Take Seattle from -112 and play them to -135.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline (-112 to -135) via FanDuel
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