Marlins vs. Braves Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+128 | 8 -104 / -118 | +1.5 -170 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-152 | 8 -104/ -118 | -1.5 +140 |
After a spectacular Cy Young winning 2022 campaign, Sandy Alcantara has struggled to a 5.47 ERA over 24 1/3 innings. He will battle Wednesday against Bryce Elder and a high powered Braves offense. Elder has pitched to a 1.14 ERA over 23 1/3 innings.
Which side has the edge in this NL East clash? Find Marlins vs. Braves betting odds and picks below.
Miami Marlins
Alcantara's early struggles have been widely covered, and for good reason, as it is always alarming when a pitcher one year removed from a Cy Young holds an ERA of 5.47 and xERA of 4.75.
Alcantara has struck out just 19.8% of batters faced, and on top of that, his Walk Rate is up slightly at 5.9%. Quality contact is up considerably as he holds a .432 xSLG rate this season compared to his .332 mark last campaign.
However, Alcantara's Stuff+ rating of 113, which is right there with his mark a season ago, suggests that he can still find better form this season.
Miami has generated just 3.2 runs per game this season, which is the second-worst mark in the league. The Fish has also struck out 24.9% of the time, playing a key role in their offensive struggles. They have hit to a .240 xBA, and .389 xSLG.
Luis Arraez has been a massive reason why they have remained somewhat competent offensively as he is batting .444 and slugging .583. His status for this matchup is unclear as he has missed two straight matchups with a bruised knee.
Atlanta Braves
With all of its most important pieces returning, Atlanta was one of the most likely candidates to duplicate its 2022 offensive success this season, and that has been the case so far. The decision to lock up the key pieces of its lineup is seemingly looking better and better with every week of baseball that goes by.
The Braves have hit to a fourth-best wRC+ of 115 and have generated runs at an elite rate as well with 5.2 per game. Their .488 xSLG rate is the best in baseball.
The right-handed Elder has now overachieved for what is becoming a very considerable sample size. It now begs the question, is he better than the underlying numbers suggest?
It's hard to say, but if he is, I can't find the reason why. Elder has pitched to an xERA of 4.00 this season, nearly three runs beyond his actual mark. A year ago his 3.17 ERA was more than a full run below his 4.25 xERA.
Elder's stuff rates very poorly. He has well below average velocity with his fastball with a Stuff+ rating of only 73 this year.
Marlins vs. Braves Betting Pick
Elder is a clear cut fade candidate entering this matchup. His expected runs against are far higher than his actual runs allowed, and that is not surprising because his stuff is rating very poorly again this year.
It is likely that Miami can do some meaningful damage off of him before he exits the game, and the total soars over a relatively low total of eight.
Alcantara's struggles this season have been well documented. Sometime soon it might even be time to buy back on him considering he is still due for better luck in some areas. I don't think today is the time though because the Braves are clearly an offensive force again this season.
Getting -110 for the game to go over 8 is a great number, and I would play over 8 down to -125.
Pick: Over 8 (-110) |
