After a wild trade deadline, the Miami Marlins gained some valuable assets for the future. Their lineup is a skeleton of what it once used to be, and now they are set to take on the Atlanta Braves for a 4-game series.
The Braves capped off a strong series in Milwaukee after defeating the Brewers in the final two games of the series. They still own the No. 1 Wild Card spot in the National League.
With limited action in the MLB, I thought it would be a great opportunity to sprinkle in a same game parlay. Let's take a look at my SGP for Marlins vs. Braves on Thursday, August 1.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Marlins vs Braves Parlay Picks: SGP Props & Odds
- Max Meyer Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
- Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115)
- Over 9 (+100)
Parlay Odds: +689 (FanDuel)
Max Meyer Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Marlins vs. Braves | 7:20 p.m. ET
Meyer draws his first career start against the Braves on Thursday evening. He has 17 Ks in 21 IPs thus far, but I wouldn't panic regarding his strikeout numbers.
His early metrics are a small sample size, but he has a well-above-average whiff rate and chase rate thus far. These are all good signs that will correlate to strong strikeout numbers in the future.
The Braves are bottom-5 in strikeouts per game on offense, and Meyer has several stints in the minors under his belt where he averaged nearly 11 K/9. It may seem like an awful matchup for Meyer, but the Braves lineup is not nearly the same without Acuna, Harris, and Albies.
Jorge Soler was a strong addition to the Braves lineup, but he is another player with a high strikeout-rate. Even if Meyer struggles, I think he should clear 4.5 Ks tonight.
Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115)
Marlins vs. Braves | 7:20 p.m. ET
Ozuna has been the MVP of the Braves lineup and is having another terrific season. He's obliterated left-handed pitching but also sports a .284 average against right-handers.
Not only that, but Ozuna has been a monster under the bright lights. He's batting .301 at home and .339 during night games. Better yet, he mashed against Miami in 2024.
Ozuna is batting .478 with two HRs and an OPS of 1.321 in 23 at-bats against the Marlins. Yeah, I guess that's pretty good.
But, Ozuna should get at least four at-bats tonight against Meyer and a sparse Marlins bullpen. I think Ozuna will pick up at minimum one extra-base hit or a couple of hits easily tonight.
Over 9 (+100)
Marlins vs. Braves | 7:20 p.m. ET
I love the value of the game total tonight to bolster our SGP odds. Now, I realize the Marlins offense is a shell of itself without Josh Bell, Jazz Chisholm, and Brayan De La Cruz. However, I think the focus should be on Braves starter Charlie Morton, not the Miami offense.
Morton is having a respectable season, but he's been hit hard on numerous occasions. Morton has a 4.16 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.
His xERA is above that 4.16 number, and all of his strikeout numbers are on the decline. He's walking too many batters, and not getting the swings and misses when he needs them.
The outlier here is that the Marlins hitters are 6-for-50 lifetime against Morton, but that does not concern me too much. Morton is clearly not his old-self, and father time may finally be catching up to him.
The Braves offense should score plenty tonight, even if Meyer holds them steady for a few innings. Their depleted bullpen won't do them any favors, and I think many will be surprised to see the Marlins have success against Morton, which is why the over is currently sitting at even-money.
