Marlins vs. Braves Odds, Pick
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+172 | 8.5 -118 / -104 | +1.5 -122 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-205 | 8.5 -118 / -104 | -1.5 +102 |
The Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves start off a four-game series on Thursday night as these two NL East foes face off once again.
Miami has one of the worst records in the league at 40-68 and already sold off most of their assets at the trade deadline as they are 25 games out of the division lead. Atlanta is still vying for a playoff spot at 58-49, as they sit 6.5 games back from the Phillies but have a one-game lead in the wild card race.
The Braves are heavy home favorites on the moneyline tonight at -198, while the game total is set at 9 runs (+100/-120). Let’s take a look at the latest MLB odds and get to my Marlins vs. Braves pick and prediction.
Miami Marlins
Max Meyer will take the mound for Miami tonight. He has made just six starts in his Major League career, including four this season. The 25-year old is ranked as Miami’s No. 2 prospect and the No. 94 prospect overall by Fangraphs. He is a smaller pitcher with a solid fastball and great slider. His performance tonight will play a big role in my Marlins vs. Braves pick.
Meyer has a 3.00 ERA this season with a 3.76 xERA and 3.93 SIERA. He has a 29% whiff rate but just a 21% strikeout rate, as he only has 17 strikeouts in 21 innings pitched. Meyer has also avoided walking many batters, as he has a 6.2% walk rate.
Meyer has a Stuff+ of 106 and Location+ of 100 this season. These numbers are great, but they are above average and may give hope to Marlins fans looking forward to what Meyer could be in the future.
One area of concern for Meyer has been his contact metrics. He ranks in the bottom-quartile in both barrel rate and hard hit rate allowed, but this has been helped by his 50% ground ball rate. If he can keep the ball on the ground then he can limit the damage from these hard hits, but if not then he may have some issues going forward.
Miami’s offense ranks 28th in the league in wRC+ and 29th in wOBA. They are also 29th in OBA, SLG, and ISO, as this is just all-around one of the worst units in the league.
The Marlins walk only 6.2% of the time, by far the lowest mark in the league. They are also 23rd in hard hit rate, 23rd in barrel rate, and 22nd in exit velocity.
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta will start Charlie Morton in this series opener. The 40-year old veteran has a 4.16 ERA on the season with a 4.32 xERA and a 4.07 SIERA. Morton is still a reliable starter, but there are signs that he has been declining this season.
Morton’s fastball velocity is now in the 44th percentile, which is the lowest mark of his career. His whiff rates and strikeout rates are lower than any complete season he has had since before joining the Astros in 2017.
Morton still ranks in the 72nd percentile in ground ball rate, but is 17th percentile in barrel rate and 48th percentile in hard hit rate. As a ground ball pitcher, these contact metrics don’t mean as much for Morton as they would for some others.
Atlanta ranks 19th in wRC+ and 14th in wOBA. They are 8th in ISO and 12th in SLG, but their largest problem has come from their plate discipline, as they have the seventh-lowest walk rate and sixth-highest strikeout rate.
When Atlanta isn’t striking out, they are mashing the ball. The Braves rank second in hard hit rate, second in barrel rate, and first in exit velocity. They have the 10th-highest fly ball rate and 8th-highest launch angle, as they are skilled at elevating the ball. The Braves also have the highest pull rate in the league, which leads to more of this power.
Marlins vs. Braves
Betting Pick & Prediction
Charlie Morton has shown signs of decline this season, but I’m not worried about him overall. Despite these declining metrics, he is still a solid option at the back end of a rotation and has upside for a strong start against an offense like Miami, which hits the ball on the ground more than anyone else.
Max Meyer has shown some promising signs early in his career, but the Atlanta offense may prove to be a tough matchup for the rookie. However, Meyer did face off against the Braves once earlier this season and put in a quality start, allowing just one run in six innings with seven strikeouts.
I believe that Morton will turn in a quality start, but Miami’s implied first five innings total is already reflecting their poor offense and doesn’t offer much value. Instead, I like taking the F5 under at 4.5 total runs, as I believe Morton and Meyer both have a chance to keep this game low scoring through the first five frames.
