Marlins vs Phillies Odds, Pick & Prediction (6/28)
| Miami Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+180 | 8 -112o / -108u | +1.5 -112 |
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-218 | 8 -112o / -108u | -1.5 -108 |
Cristopher Sánchez reached a four-year extension with the Phillies earlier in the week. The 27-year-old right-hander has done a tremendous job in the Phillies’ rotation over the last two years. He's limited walks and kept the ball on the ground, which are two elite attributes for a back-of-the-rotation arm.
His opponent will be Kyle Tyler and the Marlins on Friday. Tyler has been fine in two MLB appearances this year. He's yet to throw more than four innings at the big-league level. In the minors, he was successful, but since there are plenty of holes in Miami’s rotation, most can see why he was called upon.
Rarely do bettors see a line this skewed, but the Phils are the real deal. Will they be able to dominate on Friday night despite Bryce Harper (hamstring) and Kyle Schwarber (groin) landing on the injured list? Find out in my Marlins vs Phillies betting preview below.
Miami Marlins
Tyler has a 4.50 ERA and 4.31 xERA over six MLB innings. He's been great at limiting hard contact and has kept the ball on the ground.
However, he hasn't shown much control and won't manufacture many swings and misses. In the MiLB, he held a 2.80 ERA in 45 innings. He didn't strike many out there, either. Since the Phillies can elevate the ball with much of their power bats, Tyler could have a short outing.
The Marlins have been abysmal this month against lefties. They have a 64 wRC+, 5.1% walk rate and 27.4% strikeout rate. In addition, only two active hitters have .300+ xwOBAs.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. hasn't hit well against southpaws, so essentially, the Fish will be relying on Bryan De La Cruz and Otto López to play well.
The Fish have a few arms in relief who can take over if Tyler likely exits early. In June, they have a 3.84 xFIP in the bullpen, but the success of the Marlins’ pen will rely heavily on how deep Tyler can pitch into this game.
Philadelphia Phillies
Sánchez has a sub-3.00 ERA and xERA of 3.70. He'll see some negative regression, potentially, at one point. He yields some hard contact and won't strike many hitters out.
However, his ground-ball rate ranks in the 97th percentile. The Marlins have one of the highest ground-ball rates overall and against lefties in June. This matchup should allow Sánchez to throw well past the fifth inning, if he can limit walks.
The Phillies have hammered the ball all season. This month, they've kept the same trend going against righties. They have a 118 wRC+ in June off of northpaws with a walk rate above 8%.
In addition, the Phillies have seven bats above a .340 xwOBA. Rafael Marchán has subbed in for the injured JT Realmuto nicely at the catcher position and has hit relatively well.
In relief, the Phils have been lockdown as a unit. They have an MLB-best 3.26 xFIP with a sub-6% walk rate and strikeout rate above 28%.
Needless to say, they won't need many arms against the Fish in this game, but they have them, if it comes down to it.
Marlins vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Marlins are clear sellers with an injury-riddled starting rotation. They have a decent bullpen, but their hitting has been awful all season and hasn't been above par against lefties, like Sánchez, recently.
Take the Phillies on the run line at home. They own a massive edge in every major facet of this matchup and should continue winning against a weaker opponent.
Bet them from -1.5 (-125) to -1.5 (-145).
