Philadelphia kicked off its postseason with a dominant Game 1 performance at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday. Zack Wheeler took advantage of a favorable matchup versus a Marlins lineup that's struggled versus righties and velocity. Wheeler had eight strikeouts across 6 2/3 innings while allowing only one earned run.
The Phillies' offense continued its strong form (11 hits and four earned runs), with the bulk of the damage coming against lefty starter Jesus Luzardo.
Their lineup will look for more of the same on Wednesday against another lefty in Braxton Garrett, who should suit the eye of one batter quite well.
Marlins vs Phillies Game 2 Props
Alec Bohm Over 1.5 Total Bases +105 | Bohm RBI +170
Take advantage of our bet365 bonus code when betting props to claim $150 in bonus bets AND get a first bet safety net up to $1,000 in bonus bets!
Alec Bohm's tremendous .594 SLG-rate and 139 wRC+ versus left-handed pitchers earned him a great spot in the lineup, as he batted third in the series opener.
He came through with a double in the third to plate the Phillies' first run of the game, and it seems logical to believe Rob Thomson places him back in the three-hole on Wednesday.
Garrett has been hit more effectively than his strong 3.66 ERA suggests. He's allowed a 45.1% hard-hit rate and a xSLG-rate of .437. Right-handed batters own a .448 SLG-rate this season across 121 IP. In his final 10 starts of the season, he pitched to an xFIP of 4.09 and struck out 6.54 batters per nine.
Bohm has struggled versus high-velocity pitches, in particular, this season, as he's batted just .211 on fastballs above 95 mph.
Since the 2021 season, 36% of his strikeouts have come versus pitches 95 mph or greater.
Garrett's arsenal doesn't profile as one that should be able to expose that weakness versus Bohm. He owns a Stuff+ mark of 93, with his slider rated as his only above-average pitch.
With Bryce Harper likely to remain in behind Bohm, we can feel confident that Garrett will still look to attack Bohm, and hopefully not suffer a loss with plate appearances ending in walks. That's not much of a concern anyways considering Garrett's 4.4 BB%.
Philadelphia is hitting to a 108 wRC+ versus left-handed pitching this season and enters this matchup in strong form offensively. That's beneficial to this prop, where extra at-bats obviously would help our chances.
Trea Turner's dominant finish helped the Phillies' cause on that front. He posted a .542 SLG-rate to lefties in 2022 and started clicking into gear down the stretch.
Turner matching up well versus Garrett has me seeing value with Bohm's price of +170 to record an RBI, as we will have increased chances of Bohm batting with a man in scoring position.
And if that situation arises, we can feel good about the chances Bohm gets something in play.
