The Mets' offense was stymied in the series opener, as they managed just one run off of Ben Lively and the Guardians' elite bullpen. They get an excellent chance to bounce back in Tuesday's matchup as they take on a fade-worthy opposing starter in Carlos Carrasco.
Mets Starter Adrian Houser, however, isn't an overly compelling starter. As a result, the Mets are favored to lose for the 12th time in the last 17 games.
Here's my Mets vs Guardians Same Game Parlay for Tuesday, May 21, paying out at +300 on Bet365.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Mets vs Guardians Same Game Parlay: Tuesday MLB SGP (+300, bet365)
- Over 9.5 (-110)
- Carlos Carrasco Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150)
- Carlos Carrasco Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-115)
Over 9.5 (-110)
A total of 9.5 is relatively high for Progressive Field, to be sure.
But given this starting matchup, it still may not be high enough.
The first pitch also calls for hitter-friendly conditions, as the forecast calls for 80-degree temperatures with winds blowing out to right field.
Houser has pitched to an expected FIP of 6.04 and an expected ERA of 5.04. His K/BB ratio has dropped to a paltry 0.74, down considerably from an already mediocre mark posted in 2023. He has struck out just 6% of batters with RISP, the lowest mark among pitchers who have thrown over 17 innings.
The Mets didn't get what they had hoped for out of Carrasco last season, and things aren't looking much better now that he's moved on to Cleveland. Carrasco has pitched to a 4.59 expected FIP and 5.03 expected ERA. His strikeout rate is down to just 17.2%, and his expected rates have trended downwards following a reasonable start to the year.
Carlos Carrasco Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150)
An inability to hit right-handed pitching hasn't been New York's problem.
They boast a 103 wRC+ versus the side this season, the 11th-best mark in MLB, while striking out only 20% of the time.
The Mets are a pesky, contact-based lineup. Despite the overall negative tone surrounding the team, they have done relatively well grinding down opposing starters. They own the 11th-lowest whiff rate and the seventh-lowest zone swing-and-miss rate among MLB lineups.
Carrasco has generated just 18 strikeouts over his last 27 innings. He's gone under 4.5 strikeouts in seven of his nine outings this year. His overall level is dropping, and the Mets are tough to punch out.
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Carlos Carrasco Over 2.5 Earned Runs
As mentioned, the Mets have fared nicely against right-handed pitching this season.
They should be a tough matchup for their former teammate, and this addition to our Mets vs. Guardians Same Game Parlay correlates heavily with the game total going over and Carrasco generating fewer than five strikeouts.
Carrasco has lost nearly two ticks of velocity since 2022, which seems to correlate with an inability to get batters out with two strikes. He has allowed a .600 slugging with two strikes over his past two starts. He's allowed an OBP of .309 with two on this season.
He has also allowed a .612 slugging on pitches in the strike zone this season, which could be a particularly notable flaw if the Mets remain disciplined.
Many of Carrasco's biggest flaws should make him a particularly easy matchup for a Mets lineup that knows him well. We should see New York's offense hit Carrasco hard, giving us a great chance to cash our three-leg Mets vs. Guardians Same Game Parlay.
