Mets vs. Marlins Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -120 | 8 +100 / -120 | -1.5 +145 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| +100 | 8 +100 / -120 | +1.5 -170 |
The Miami Marlins host the New York Mets once again on Friday evening. Both teams turn to a southpaw on the hill as Jesús Luzardo faces David Peterson.
In 2022, Luzardo and Peterson had comparable peripherals, so from a starting pitching standpoint, these teams should be relatively even heading into the second game of the series. That said, the Marlins do struggle out of the bullpen. Their offense also performed horribly last season against left-handed pitching, though they did make additions in Luis Arráez and Jean Segura.
As for the Mets, they feasted against lefties. Given their number of improvements over the offseason, they should propel to victory in this one.
Continue reading for a preview of Mets vs. Marlins, plus a betting pick for this NL East battle.
New York Mets
David Peterson is one of the constant pieces in the Mets rotation. Last year, Peterson allowed some hard contact, ranking 18th in average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate, but he did have above average xSLG and xBA marks, while striking out hitters 27.8% of the time. He has struggled at times with his control, walking more than 10% of the hitters he faced over the last three seasons.
However, from Aug. 1 and beyond last season, Miami only held a 71 wRC+ off southpaws with a 7.5% walk rate. The Marlins only had a 88.2 mph average Exit Velocity, too, so if anything, this gives Peterson an edge. Jean Segura is a right-handed hitter who boasted a .855 OPS against lefties in 2022, but Arráez had just a a .685 OPS. In addition, both resided below the 50th percentile in average Exit Velocity overall, so this again plays into Peterson’s hands.
Even without Edwin Díaz closing, the Mets have an above average bullpen. Last season, they had a relief xFIP of 3.47, which ranked third in MLB behind Houston and Cleveland. New York also struck out 27.6% of hitters.
David Robertson will close games out for the foreseeable future with Adam Ottavino as a setup man — a strong 1-2 punch at the end of the game.
Miami Marlins
Jesús Luzardo is an impressive young arm, but like Peterson, he ranked below average in average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate in 2022 (35th percentile and 39th percentiles, respectively). Again, like Peterson, he struck out hitters at a strong rate of 30% while issuing walks just 8.8% of the time. Still, Luzardo brought his walk rate down from 11% in 2021, so this was a major improvement.
Against lefties, the Mets ranked 10th with a 110 wRC+ from Aug. 1 onward last season. They only struck out 19% of the time, so this should cut into what is seen as a usual advantage for Luzardo and his wipeout slider. Four members on the Mets had at least a a .320+ xwOBA on sliders last season. Although this does not jump off the page, much of the lineup was over .300, so this gives them a fighter’s chance with a .312 overall against this pitch.
The kicker here is the Marlins bullpen is not sharp, though they had about a league average xFIP at 3.87. Dylan Floro and A.J. Puk are decent options, but the middle relief is still suspect, and the Mets can hit both sides of the pitching rubber. New York should hold an edge in the battle of the bullpens.
Mets vs. Marlins Betting Pick
New York's line is a bit short in this one. Luzardo and Peterson were comparable pitchers last season, but the Marlins did not do enough to shore up their hitting woes against left-handers. The Mets also have the better bullpen even without their usual closer.
Take the Mets ML at -118, and play them to -135. They should be heavier favorites.
Pick: Mets ML (-118; playable to -135) |
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