Mets vs. Phillies Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 9 -106o / -114u | +152 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +108 | 9 -106o / -114u | -180 |
The fourth and final installment of this NL East series kicks off Sunday's MLB slate with the second-place Philadelphia Phillies hosting the fourth-place New York Mets.
Philadelphia has controlled the series thus far, winning each of the first three games by a combined 17-13 score.
Will the Phillies take care of business once again, or can the Mets end the series on a high note?
Here's a look at the odds and my Mets vs. Phillies betting pick and prediction.
New York Mets
Right-hander Jose Butto takes the mound for New York in this contest and could be a good fade candidate. Yes, he has delivered thus far with a 3.09 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.
However, that is over an extremely limited 32-inning sample size. This is a pitcher who had a 5.93 ERA in Triple A this year and a 4.00 ERA in Double A the year prior. And he probably would not even be up in the rotation right now if the season wasn't already chalked for the Mets.
Specifically, we're going to fade Butto in the strikeout department as he owns a 24.7 Chase% and 21.3 K%, two figures that would place him in the bottom-half of the league if he qualified. It would not be shocking if we see this awaited-regression against this powerhouse Phillies lineup.
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia's lineup has been incredible over the second half of the season, which is a product of both Trea Turner and Bryce Harper figuring out their early-season difficulties. Entering this game, the Phillies rank in the top 9 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs.
They also have been doing a good job at avoiding strikeouts, ranking 14th in K% when facing right-handed pitching since the beginning of August. This success at avoiding the punchout is likely to continue against Butto, a pitcher whom this lineup owns a 21.4 K% and 21.9 Whiff% against through 14 career plate appearances.
It is such a small sample size because, in his lone career outing against Philly, Butto was pulled after four innings due to surrendering seven runs on nine hits. Given how hot this lineup has been, a similar result would not be shocking.
Mets vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
Butto is not a good pitcher and has been over-performing. Could that continue on Sunday? Of course, but I think we see him implode sooner rather than later, just like he did against Philadelphia earlier this season.
He struggled in Double A, Triple A, and struggled in his MLB debut last season. His September call-up has gone smoothly (outside of his one start against the Phillies), but I would wager those results are unsustainable.
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