Mets vs Phillies Odds & Prediction: MLB London Finale
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 11 +100o / -120u | +135 |
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 11 +100o / -120u | -160 |
Welcome to London for an NL East showdown between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies.
The English baseball fans got an idea of two things on Saturday: how good the Phillies are at baseball and how poor the Mets can be. After Philadelphia's 7-2 win in the Saturday opener, we'll get one more game in the MLB London Series on Sunday morning, with first pitch scheduled for 10:10 a.m. ET on ESPN.
Let's dive into the MLB odds and make a Mets vs Phillies prediction for Game 2 from London.
New York Mets
The Mets will hand the ball to José Quintana, a veteran left-hander who is still hoping to find his form in 2024. He’s pitching to a 5.17 ERA with pretty poor peripherals, including a 5.23 xERA, 5.25 FIP and 4.67 xFIP. The 35-year-old southpaw has allowed at least three runs in four of his past five starts, including a four-run blowout in a loss to the Braves.
It’s been a strong season for the Mets offense. That’s not the reason for their poor 27-36 record, which is largely due to inconsistent starting pitching paired with arguably the worst bullpen in baseball — with Edwin Diaz currently rehabbing in the minors and others falling below expectations.
The Mets offense owns a 106 wRC+, and it’s starting to get even better, with Francisco Lindor posting a 172 wRC+ since May 20 and Mark Vientos finally realizing his former top-50 prospect status.
It’s been a very strange season for Brandon Nimmo, who boasts the highest on-base percentage on the team at .375 but is batting a career-low .222. He’s striking out 23.7% of the time, also a career high, but even when he’s making contact it’s not resulting in positive outcomes. I’d imagine his jarring low .279 BABIP will get on track eventually. He’s a potential difference-maker to watch in this one.
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies fans have clamored for Taijuan Walker’s removal from the rotation in favor of Spencer Turnbull. I can’t blame the sometime over-reactive fans for wanting the better pitcher starting, as Walker is easily one of the worst starters in MLB. You can’t find a single stat that points to Walker turning things around; his 5.73 ERA is joined by a 6.14 xERA, 5.66 FIP and 5.00 xFIP. It doesn’t help that he ranks in the bottom five percentile in hard-hit percentage and barrel percentage.
Walker is a fly-ball pitcher, which could be a problem with London Stadium’s short dimensions. It only takes 380 feet to reach the seats in center field, and 330 to right and left field. Those measurements should lead to plenty of balls reaching the seats against Walker, who has allowed eight homers in eight starts this year.
I also like the Phillies' bats in this matchup against another pretty ineffective starter in Quintana. The Phillies touched up another lefty, Sean Manaea, for seven hits and six runs in just 3.2 innings on Friday. Philadelphia has a better batting average and slugging percentage against southpaws than righties. Plus, each of the three everyday lefty batters — Bryson Stott, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber — have reverse splits.
Speaking of Harper, he’s on a total heater right now. The two-time MVP went 3-for-4 with a home run in the first game of the series and is hitting .360 with a .467 OBP and .680 SLG over his past seven games. As other hitters like Schwarber and Stott scuffle, Harper can make up for his teammates' shortcomings.
Mets vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
I’ll gladly roll with the Over here. The total finished at 9 in the first game of the series, which led to the Under cashing since the total was 9.5. In five London Series games, the Under has hit twice, and that number should remain at two if two very inconsistent veteran pitchers continue to struggle.
This pitching matchup faced off one time on May 16, when Walker and Quintana each allowed two runs. The game went to extra innings and resulted in a 6-5 Mets victory, with the Over hitting. Two runs for each of the starters this time around feels pretty light given the circumstances of playing in such a hitter-friendly ballpark.
Pick: Over 10.5
