Mets vs. Reds Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -162 | 9 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +104 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+136 | 9 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -125 |
Justin Verlander will make his second start of the season Wednesday in an exciting matchup with Reds flamethrower Hunter Greene.
Verlander was solid in his return Thursday versus Detroit, allowing two earned runs over five innings. Greene, meanwhile, had been cruising of late up until a tough outing against Chicago. He now owns an ERA of 3.74 on the season in 33.2 innings of work.
New York is priced as a favorite of over -150 on Wednesday.
Also, be sure to check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate of games.
New York Mets
The strengths of the Mets offense will make for an interesting matchup against Greene. It will be strength-on-strength, as an elite strikeout pitcher will go head-to-head with a very disciplined team at the plate.
New York has struck out just 20.3% of the time this season and has walked 10.2% of the time. Those marks add up to a league-best BB/K ratio of 0.50.
The Mets will be in their better splits against a right-handed pitcher as well. They've hit to a 104 wRC+ against righties and own a .318 wOBA.
They also boast positive pitch values against the fastball and slider, which Greene throws 95% of the time.
Cincinnati Reds
Greene is beginning to be more consistent with his incredible stuff this season, resulting in strong performances. He has pitched to a 3.74 ERA and 3.61 xERA in 33.2 innings. His xFIP sits at 3.67 entering this matchup.
But when he does get hit, he tends to get hit hard. His hard-hit rate is still up at 45.3%. There have been several innings in which Greene's fastball command seems to fall apart, which has become a concern leading to crooked numbers.
Even still, Greene's ERA is very fair, and he should hang around that the rest of the way.
The Mets will certainly be happy to extend at-bats and get into a weak Reds bullpen sooner rather than later.
The Reds' bullpen has thrown to a very solid 4.14 xFIP over the last 30 days. That's the 11th-best clip in baseball during that time, but likely it's an overachievement compared to what we should expect moving forward.
Mets vs. Reds Betting Pick
New York will present a difficult matchup for Greene at Great American Ball Park. The Mets' scrappy and disciplined approach could easily lead to a blowup inning or two from Greene. However, he has been significantly better in terms of maintaining his command and avoiding both walks and meatballs that lead to home runs.
It would not surprise me to see Greene look untouchable for a few innings and still leave after allowing 3-4 earned runs coming in the fifth or later. We've seen that play out before this year, and I think New York's lineup could easily pull that off.
Things could also go south a little earlier for Greene, which allows the Mets to face a middle-of-the-pack Reds bullpen early on.
A healthy Mets lineup is still something I'm interested in buying. This matchup is a good spot to do so.
The Mets are priced at -140 to record over 4.5 runs, and I feel that's worthy of a bet. I'm also interested in a smaller sprinkle on some alternate team totals given a potential blowup start from Greene. Over 7.5 is a solid option for that angle at +300.
