The Houston Astros host the Miami Marlins on July 21, 2026. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on MIAM.
The Astros are favored by -126 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Marlins are +104 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Marlins vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Marlins vs Astros Prediction
- Marlins vs Astros Pick: Tyler Phillips Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-119)
Our Marlins vs Astros best bet is on Tyler Phillips to record three strikeouts or fewer tonight. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Astros Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -193 | 9 -102o / -118u | +104 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 9 -102o / -118u | -126 |
- Marlins vs Astros moneyline: Marlins +104, Astros -126
- Marlins vs Astros over/under: 9 (-102o / -118u)
- Marlins vs Astros spread: Marlins +1.5 (-193), Astros -1.5 (+158)
Marlins vs Astros Probable Pitchers
| Tyler Phillips (RHP, MIA) | Stat | Tatsuya Imai (RHP, HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | W-L | 5-4 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 3.38 / 4.88 | ERA / xERA | 6.06 / 5.05 |
| 4.48 / 4.66 | FIP / xFIP | 5.07 / 4.24 |
| 6.5 | K-BB% | 12.9 |
| 46.9 | GB% | 44.3 |
| .274 | BABIP | .290 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 86 |
| 98 | Location+ | 98 |
Marlins vs Astros MLB Betting Preview
Action PRO projects Marlins starter Tyler Phillips for 3.05 strikeouts in his matchup against the Astros tonight, giving us a nice 9.3% edge against the market when compared to his current prop line of over/under 3.5, which is good enough to tag the under with a B- grade in our system.
He's had a couple of rough outings recently, allowing five runs and seven hits in just three and 1/3 innings against the A's on July 3, and lasting only one inning in his last start against the Guardians, giving up two runs.
So, this could be another short outing, plus he's facing a Houston lineup that is the 6th-best in MLB in the past 14 days in strikeout percentage with 20.6%.
Marlins vs Astros Pick, Betting Analysis
Phillips is not a punch-out artist by any means, as he has 56 Ks in 75 innings pitched so far, and last season he recorded just 52 in 77 and 2/3 IP.
He has gone under this line in his last four starts, with totals of 1, 2, 3 and 1 strikeouts in those games.
Let's fade him tonight on his Ks line against the Astros.
Pick: Tyler Phillips Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-119, DraftKings)
