The New York Mets (49-38) and Milwaukee Brewers (48-38) will meet in MLB on Thursday night. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on SNY and MLB.TV.
The Mets snapped their 4-game losing skid in the second matchup of yesterday's doubleheader. They will look to make it 2 straight tonight as they take on former teammate Jose Quintana, who was an effective arm for New York the last 2 seasons.
David Peterson will start for the Mets and has had a strong start to the campaign, posting a 3.30 ERA in 95.1 innings of work.
Continue below for my Brewers vs Mets predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, July 3, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Prediction, Picks
- Brewers vs. Mets Pick: Mets F5 -0.5 (-125 · Play to -135)
My Mets vs. Brewers best bet is New York in the first five innings, with the best line currently available at bet365. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Mets Odds, Line, Spread
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 8.5 +100o / -120u | +135 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 8.5 +100o / -120u | -160 |
Brewers vs Mets MLB Betting Preview
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
With a crowded rotation entering the 2025 season, the Mets opted to let Jose Quintana walk in free agency, and he's been quite the pickup thus far considering his modest one-year, $4.25 million contract.
The veteran lefty has overachieved expectations in posting a 3.30 ERA in 60 innings of work, earning a record of 6-2.
Quintana's underlying profile is less convincing than his strong ERA, as he holds a 1.42 WHIP and 4.84 xFIP so far this season.
This is the fourth straight season in which Quintana has outperformed his xERA, but it currently looks even more improbable than in seasons past that he will continue to be as effective as he has been thus far.
Quintana holds a Stuff+ rating of 85, a Pitching+ rating of 92, and a strikeout minus walk rate of 4.5%, compared to a mark of 10% in 2024. He's generated fewer ground balls than last season and allowed a higher hard-hit rate of 38.6%.
Milwaukee's offense holds a wRC+ rating of 100 versus left-handed pitching this season and 148 over the last month of play (214 PAs). It holds the sixth-lowest hard-hit rate versus lefties in that span, however, and owns a BABIP of .381.
New York Mets Betting Preview: Can Mets Score?
The Mets have struggled to hit with runners in scoring position over the last month of play, which has ruined an offensive process that otherwise still continues to look quite solid.
They hold a wRC+ rating of 96 with RISP since June 3 with an OPS of .712. In those at-bats, they hold the third-highest hard-hit rate in the league but rank 23rd in BABIP.
The Mets hold the fourth-highest expected slug rate this season and the third-highest expected weighted on-base average. They have not been producing where it counts recently, which has allowed the Phillies to overtake them atop the division, but they should be due for better offensive results in the near future.
Peterson will be looking to bounce back from a pair of ugly outings on the road in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, as he makes his first start at Citi Field since June 11.
Peterson has thrived at Citi Field so far this season, pitching to an ERA of 2.22 with a WHIP of 1.15 in 48 2/3 innings of work. He also holds an xFIP of 3.21 at home this season.
Peterson has struggled to an ERA of 4.55 over his last five starts, but the underlying results from those outings have been reasonable. He holds an xFIP of 3.73, and a Pitching+ rating of 97.
Brewers vs Mets Pick, Best Bets
The Brewers have overachieved offensively over the last month thanks to an unsustainably high average with runners in scoring position and are likely due to come down to earth in that regard in the near future.
The Mets high-powered offense still looks to be offering a strong process recently and should start to produce runs at a higher rate moving forward.
Quintana has outperformed his underlying profile once again this season, but a number of statistics suggest he is even more due for regression than in years past. He holds a career-low strikeout minus walk rate, as well as the worst Stuff+ rating of his career.
Peterson's recent results have not been overly convincing either, but he still looks to offer a fairly significant edge in comparison to Quintana.
At -125, there looks to be value in backing the Mets to win the first five innings (3-way moneyline), and I would bet it down to -135.
Pick: Mets F5 -0.5 (-125 · Play to -135)
Brewers vs Mets MLB Same-Game Parlay
- Jose Quintana Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130)
- Jose Quintana Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-135)
- David Peterson to Record the Win (+150)
Parlay odds: +575 (bet365)
Quintana looks like a good fade candidate right now, and the Mets' scrappy lineup could be well situated for a strong performance versus their former teammate.
New York has not struck out very often versus lefties this season, and its strong plate discipline could be particularly effective given the low quality of Quintana's stuff.
Quintana has struck out more than three batters in three of his last six starts, which is a positive given the difficulty of the Mets lineup and that we are obviously targeting him having a worse-than-average outing in which he allows more than two earned runs.
Peterson leads the Mets with eight quality starts this season and is more than capable of providing himself with a strong opportunity to earn a win at his best.
If Quintana struggles the way we are hoping, Peterson should have a good chance of earning a win and cashing our parlay at +575.
