The Cleveland Guardians host the Minnesota Twins on Monday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET on MLB.TV.
Find my Twins vs Guardians prediction and pick for Monday, plus the latest MLB odds for September 16, below.
Twins-Guardians odds for Monday have the Twins as -115 moneyline favorites and the Guardians as -105 underdogs. The over/under is set at 7.5 (-125o / +100u). Pablo Lopez takes the mound for Minnesota, while Cleveland hands the ball to Matthew Boyd.
Minnesota Twins-Cleveland Guardians Prediction
- Twins-Guardians Pick: Under 7.5
My Twins-Guardians best bet is on the under, where I see value at +100. The best line is available at BetMGM, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs. Twins Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-115 | 7.5 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +150 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-105 | 7.5 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -180 |
Twins vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Pablo Lopez (MIN) | Stat | LHP Matthew Boyd (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 15-8 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 3.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 3.88 / 3.48 | ERA /xERA | 2.18 / 2.91 |
| 3.52 / 3.24 | FIP / xFIP | 3.05 / 3.84 |
| 1.13 | WHIP | 0.91 |
| 21.3% | K-BB% | 21.4% |
| 44.9% | GB% | 34.5% |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 74 |
| 104 | Location+ | 103 |
Tony Sartori's Twins vs Guardians Preview
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview: Bad Matchup for Lineup?
Lopez has been strong this season, posting a 15-8 record through 29 starts with a 3.88 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. His underlying metrics are even stronger, as the right-hander boasts a 3.48 xERA and ranks in the top half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate.
Entering this matchup in particularly dominant form, Lopez hasn't allowed an earned run in four of his past five starts. He's 4-0 over that stretch with a 0.79 ERA.
Following Lopez is a strong bullpen that ranks fifth in FIP and eighth in xFIP.
While Minnesota also possesses a strong lineup, it may struggle against Boyd. Through 101 combined career plate appearances against the left-hander, this current Twins lineup possesses a mere .239 BA, .348 SLG and .280 wOBA.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: Strong Bullpen to Lead the Way
Considering his recent form, Boyd's success against Minnesota is likely to continue on Monday evening.
He's allowed just one earned run in five of his six starts since returning from injury, posting a 2-1 record with a 2.18 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over that span.
His analytics suggest that regression is unlikely, given that Boyd ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and barrel rate.
While I discussed the Twins' strong bullpen in the preceding section, the Guardians' is even stronger.
The league's best relief staff ranks first in ERA, second in xFIP and first in FIP.
However, run support for this pitching staff is often a question mark. Cleveland ranks in the bottom half of the league in hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS.
Twins vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis
There should be a lot of optimism on the under at 7.5, especially at plus-money. Both starting pitchers rank in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate and walk rate.
Meanwhile, both bullpens rank in the top eight in both FIP and xFIP. That just leaves the hitting, and the main concern there is Minnesota's lineup.
With that said, it possesses a poor track record against Boyd, who's been tremendous himself since returning from injury.
Finally, the weather should also help us out slightly as the forecast calls for light winds blowing in from right-center.
Pick: Under 7.5 (+100 | Play to -105)
Moneyline
I'm going to pass on the moneyline. I believe that both starting pitchers are strong, and the gap between the two lineups isn't substantial enough to swing me in a particular direction.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also going to pass on the run line. I like the Guardians at +1.5, but not with the amount of juice I'd have to lay.
Over/Under
I'm betting under 7.5 in this game.
Twins-Guardians Betting Trends
- 54% of the bets and 90% of the money are on the Guardians on the moneyline.
- 92% of the bets and 92% of the money are on the over.
- 56% of the bets and 42% of the money are on the Guardians to cover the run line.
Twins Betting Trends
- The Twins are 3-2 in their last five games.
- The Twins are 3-2 in their last five games against the spread.
- The Twins are 33-41 in their road games against the spread.
Guardians Betting Trends
- The Guardians are 3-2 in their last five games.
- The Guardians are 3-2 in their last five games against the spread.
- The totals have gone under in four of Guardians' last five games.
