AL Central rivals square off on Friday night as the Kansas City Royals (76-65) host the Minnesota Twins (76-64) at Kauffman Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
The Cleveland Guardians (80-60) have led the AL Central since early April, but with a good September, Minnesota or Kansas City could catch them. The Twins sit four games back and the Royals 4 1/2 games back entering Friday.
None of these three teams are playing particularly well at the moment, but all of them should comfortably make the playoffs barring a collapse. The Twins and Royals occupy the final two AL wild-card spots, with the Royals holding a five-game edge over the Seattle Mariners.
I preview this AL Central opener below and offer my Twins vs Royals predictions and picks for Friday, September 6.
Twins-Royals Predictions
- Twins-Royals picks: Under 8 (-105)
My Twins-Royals best bet is the game total to go Under 8 runs, where I see value at -105. The best line is available at Caesars Sportsbook — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
+120 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -180 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
-142 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +146 |
- Twins-Royals Moneyline: Twins +120 | Royals -142
- Twins-Royals Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Twins-Royals Run Line (Spread): Twins +1.5 (-180) | Royals -1.5 (+146)
Projected Starting Pitchers — Twins at Royals
| RHP Zebby Matthews (MIN) | Stat | LHP Cole Ragans (KC) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 10-9 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.3 |
| 7.41 /4.51 | ERA /xERA | 3.46 / 3.36 |
| 5.60 / 4.19 | FIP / xFIP | 3.01 / 3.42 |
| 1.47 | WHIP | 1.17 |
| 20.3% | K-BB% | 21.1% |
| 42.1% | GB% | 40.2% |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 109 |
| 101 | Location+ | 99 |
Twins-Royals Preview, Prediction
Twins Betting Preview: Tough Sledding Without Correa & Buxton
Zebby Matthews, 24, got the callup for his MLB debut on August 13 and has made four starts with mixed results. Matthews has a 7.41 ERA, largely due to a disaster blow up in his last outing when he allowed nine runs in two innings to the Toronto Blue Jays.
Matthews is the Twins’ No. 5 prospect and the organization’s top pitching prospect. He quickly rose through the minor league system thanks to his elite command. Even dating back to college, he has rarely issued free passes. He has allowed just two walks in his four big-league starts. He mostly relies on his fastball and managed a 3.00 ERA before his last outing.
When the Twins offense is on their A-game, they are very difficult to beat — the problem is we have rarely seen them at full strength this season. They are currently without Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler as all three are on the injured list.
As a whole, Minnesota ranks fifth in wRC+ this season. However, without a number of weapons in the lineup, this team ranks just 23rd over the last two weeks.
Royals Betting Preview: Twins in Trouble Against Ragans
Cole Ragans is one of the game’s best young pitchers, but he didn’t quite step into that Cy Young contender tier that many thought he would entering the season. Ragans is 10-9 with a 3.46 ERA, which ranks in the top 25 of the league.
Ragans' strength is his elite ability to miss bats with his fastball, changeup and slider trio. The left-hander has a 10.99 K/9 rate, the fourth best among all qualified pitchers.
In Ragans' last outing, one bad inning spoiled a historic outing. He set a new franchise record with eight consecutive strikeouts, finishing the outing with 10 total. However, a five-run sixth inning spoiled his chance to celebrate.
We have seen Ragans' velocity dip a tad of late, and his command has taken a step back as well. He has allowed 15 walks in his last six starts, though he has been able to keep his strikeout rate high to limit the damage.
On offense, Kansas City is without a major bat in first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, who landed on the injured list with a broken thumb. Bobby Witt Jr. is having an MVP-caliber season, but this has been a league-average lineup top-to-bottom with a wRC+ of 99.
Like Minnesota, the Royals offense has taken a dip recently falling to just 26th over the last two weeks. Pasquantino is also their best left-handed hitter, making this matchup against a right-handed pitcher more difficult.
Twins-Royals Prediction & Over/Under Betting Analysis
The Twins and Royals enter this game shorthanded and struggling at the plate. They are each missing key bats and both rank in the bottom 10 in wRC+ and wOBA over the last two weeks.
To make matters worse, the stars that are in the lineup have cooled off. Witt is hitting just .241 over the last two weeks while Royce Lewis is batting .227 over that same stretch.
Ragans is one of the game’s best pitchers and continues to generate strikeouts at an elite level. In his most recent outing against Minnesota in August, he went seven innings and allowed just one run and punched out eight.
Matthews comes into this game with a glaring ERA, but one horrific start ballooned that number. He had a 3.00 ERA in his three starts before that last game. Matthews doesn’t issue free passes and will make the Royals attack his pinpoint command.
I am going to fade these struggling offenses and back two pitchers who have shown an ability to shut down their opponents.
Pick: Under 8
Moneyline
I would lean Kansas City given the starting pitcher advantage with Ragans, but the number is too big for my liking given the recent struggles on offense. If the price got down to the -130 range, I would consider the Royals moneyline, but not at the current price.
Run Line (Spread)
Pass.
Over/Under
Under 8 is my favorite bet. I really like both starting pitchers and these two offenses are shorthanded and slumping.
Twins-Royals Betting Trends
- 81% of the bets and 90% of the money are on the Royals moneyline.
- 99% of the bets and 95% of the money are on the over.
- 86% of the bets and 88% of the money are on the Royals to cover the run line.
Twins Trends
- Twins are 2-3 in their last 5 games
- Twins are 0-5 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Twins are 33-37 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Twins' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 34 of Twins' 69 last games at home
Royals Trends
- Royals are 1-4 in their last 5 games
- Royals are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Royals are 36-33 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Royals' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Royals' 72 last games at home
Twins-Royals Injuries
Twins Key Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| OF Byron Buxton | Right hip inflammation (10-day IL) |
| OF Max Kepler | Left patellar tendinitis (10-day IL) |
| SS Carlos Correa | Plantar fasciitis (10-day IL) |
| OF Manuel Margot | Adductor strain(60-day IL) |
Royals Key Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| LHP Will Smith | Back spasms (15-day IL) |
| RHP Hunter Harvey | Back tightness (15-day IL) |
| RHP Michael Lorenzen | Left hamstring strain (15-day IL) |
| 1B Vinnie Pasquantino | Right thumb fracture (10-day IL) |
