The Miami Marlins (38-46) and Minnesota Twins (41-45) will meet in the MLB on Thursday afternoon. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 12:10 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on MNNT.
Minnesota is a -115 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Miami is -105 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 8 total runs.
Continue below for my and Twins vs Marlins predictions and MLB picks, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Twins vs Marlins Prediction, Picks
- Twins vs Marlins pick: Marlins Moneyline (+110 | Play to -105)
My Marlins vs. Twins best bet is Miami moneyline, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Marlins Odds for Thursday, July 3
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8 -110 / -110 | -115 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -173 | 8 -110 / -110 | -105 |
- Twins vs Marlins run line: Twins -1.5 (+145), Marlins +1.5 (-173)
- Twins vs Marlins over/under: 8 total runs
- Twins vs Marlins moneyline: Twins -115, Marlins -105
- Twins vs Marlins best bet: Marlins ML
Twins vs Marlins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP David Festa (MIN) | Stat | RHP Eury Perez (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 0-2 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 5.40 / 4.74 | ERA / xERA | 6.19 / 3.66 |
| 4.70 / 4.45 | FIP / xFIP | 4.02 / 5.32 |
| 1.42 | WHIP | 1.50 |
| 14.1% | K-BB% | 5.6% |
| 40.6% | GB% | 33.3% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 117 |
| 104 | Location+ | 91 |
Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins MLB Preview
David Festa struggled in his 2024 debut campaign. Through 14 appearances, Festa posted a 2-6 record with a 4.90 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.
He’s regressed even further in 2025, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP through eight outings for the Twins. Festa’s underlying metrics this year suggest more of the same is likely.
The right-hander ranks in the 18th percentile in expected ERA (xERA), 31st percentile in average exit velocity, 36th percentile in walk rate and 21st percentile in barrel rate.
These struggles are likely to continue against Miami, a team he posted a 6.23 ERA against in their lone meeting.
If Festa falters again, his bullpen is unlikely to provide much help. Minnesota’s relief corps ranks 23rd in ERA.
Miami’s bullpen isn’t much better, but it does rank ahead of Minnesota’s in that key category.
Not that it should matter too much, given that Eury Pérez is a prime buy-low candidate.
While Pérez’s surface-level stats are underwhelming, his analytics suggest he’s a much stronger pitcher than advertised.
If he qualified, Pérez would rank in the top half of the league in xERA, expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity and barrel rate.
He should also receive solid run support from an underrated lineup.
Entering this matchup, the Marlins rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, batting average and stolen bases.
The team’s main weakness is its lack of power. That said, Miami still outranks Minnesota in OPS.
Twins vs Marlins Betting Predictions, Best Bets
This game presents a strong opportunity to buy low on Pérez at plus money. His analytics suggest he’s a superior pitcher to Festa, which is just one of several advantages Miami holds despite its +110 price tag.
The Marlins’ relief corps outranks Minnesota’s in ERA, and the hitting advantage also goes to Miami. This season, they lead the Twins in runs scored per game, hits per game, batting average and OPS.
Pick: Marlins ML (+110 | Play to -105)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I'm betting on the Marlins moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Miami to cover, but I find more value in just taking the outright moneyline price.
Over/Under
I lean toward the under, but I don't trust Festa.
Twins vs Marlins Betting Trends
For the latest on MLB injuries, be sure to check out our MLB Injury Report page.
