The Minnesota Twins (75-64) and Tampa Bay Rays (69-70) wrap their four-game series on Thursday afternoon at Tropicana Field. First pitch for this series finale is set for 1:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The Twins have dropped two of the first three games against the Rays at Tropicana Field, which has been a house of horrors for American League foes through the years. Minnesota enters Thursday 4 1/2 games back of first place in the AL Central but in possession of a wild-card spot. The Rays, meanwhile, are six games back of a wild-card spot.
Can the Twins avoid dropping this series? I preview the finale below and offer my Twins vs Rays prediction and moneyline pick for Thursday, September 5.
Twins-Rays Predictions
- Twins-Rays pick: Twins Moneyline (-135 | Play to -150)
My Twins-Rays best bet is on the Twins moneyline, where I see value at -135. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Rays Odds
| Minnesota Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-155 | 7 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +120 |
| Tampa Bay Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+130 | 7 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -142 |
- Twins-Rays Moneyline: Twins -155 | Rays +130
- Twins-Rays Total: Over/Under 7 runs (-115o / -105u)
- Twins-Rays Spread: Twins -1.5 (+120) | Rays +1.5 (-142)
Projected Starting Pitchers for Twins at Rays
| RHP Pablo Lopez | Stat | RHP Taj Bradley |
|---|---|---|
| 13-8 | W-L | 6-9 |
| 2.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 4.05/3.50 | ERA /xERA | 4.35/4.26 |
| 3.68/3.38 | FIP / xFIP | 4.20/3.73 |
| 1.12 | WHIP | 1.22 |
| 5.0% | K-BB% | 3.2% |
| 43% | GB% | 41% |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 116 |
| 105 | Location+ | 97 |
Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays Preview
Rays Betting Preview: Taj Bradley in Poor Form
If Tampa Bay were to make the playoffs, it would take an absolute miracle. They sit at 69-70 and six games back of the third wild card spot, but taking the first two games over the Twins has shortened the deficit. We'll see if the Rays can get within five games if they can sweep the Twins.
There's no nice way to describe Taj Bradley's performance over the past month. He has a jarringly terrible 8.13 ERA over his past seven outings with a 1.60 WHIP and diminishing strikeout numbers.
That rough stretch elevated Bradley's season-long ERA to 4.35. So, regression has hit Bradley in the worst way and if he wants to finish the year with an ERA below 4.00, he'll need a strong finish. He'll also look to shake off his worst start of the year as the Padres tagged him for eight runs over 2 1/3 innings in his most recent outing.
Since the Trade Deadline, the Rays' offense has taken a turn for the worse, posting the third-worst wRC+. It's not a coincidence that the timing of the Rays offensive collapse correlates with Isaac Paredes being traded to the Cubs.
The Rays didn't only trade their most reliable bat, they also brought in Christopher Morel, who strikes out 26% of the time and has a 84 wRC+. That's a disaster of a swap for the Rays, and goes to show that their front office isn't immune to making questionable moves. Morel has played a huge role in Tampa Bay's massive strikeout problems, punching out 27.1% of the time since August.
I don't see the offense suddenly turning things around. The roster is the roster, but if Yandy Diaz can hit like he did Wednesday, then Tampa Bay will have a great chance to compete for wins.
Twins Betting Preview: Pablo Lopez on Heater
The job for Minnesota is simple. It just needs to play .500 baseball for the final month, and it'll likely secure a wild-card spot. It's not as good as winning the division, but making the dance gives the Twins a chance to win the World Series.
Pablo Lopez has been looking like the guy who earned CY Young votes, instead of the mid-4's ERA pitcher he was for most of the season. The Twins' ace boasts an impressive 2.01 ERA over his past seven outings with a 1.05 WHIP.
Lopez hasn't allowed a run in his past three outings, a span of 20 1/3 innings. He faced the Blue Jays, Cardinals and Rangers, none of which are elite hitting teams, but neither are the Rays.
Looking deeper at Lopez's profile, it's pretty interesting to see how he's turned his season from rough to solid. I think most people consider Lopez to be a strikeout pitcher, which is accurate based on past years' results. However, he's stopped nibbling and hunting punchouts, bringing his K/9 down to 9.4. Focusing less on strikeouts has helped limit walks, which has resulted in a career-best 1.91 BB/9.
Minnesota's offense is still missing arguably its two scariest weapons — Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. It's all about treading water until those star reinforcements come. The Twins done a terrific job treading water, posting a 108 wRC+ over the past month.
So, what makes Bradley a favorable pitcher for the Twins' offense?
The simple answer is that he's a right-handed pitcher. With Correa and Buxton out, the Twins' lineup is very lefty-heavy. Keep an eye on Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach, who finished top two in the Twins' lineup in wRC+ in August. They pose a similar skillset to prime Joey Gallo as guys with elite walk rates and terrible strikeout rates, but with game-changing power.
Twins-Rays Prediction & Moneyline Betting Analysis
I'm taking the Twins moneyline here. Lopez is in better form than Bradley and the Twins' offense should break through after a tough couple games. When Lopez gets going, he can carve through this shaky Rays lineup. The veteran righty should go pretty deep into the outing, which limits the amount of chances the Twins' bullpen has to blow this bet.
Pick: Twins Moneyline
Moneyline
I'm betting the Twins moneyline on Thursday afternoon.
Run Line (Spread)
I'll pass on the run line here. I don't see value on either side. If you've bet the Twins run line recently, you've lost money. So, that doesn't encourage me to take the Twins -1.5 runs.
Over/Under
I'll lean to the over here. The total went over in each of Bradley's past two starts against the Padres and Dodgers. While both pitchers have performed like aces at various points, they've also been very fade-worthy options at other points. Neither hurler is immune to blow-up outings, so I see some value in the over, but it's just a lean, not a bet.
Twins-Rays Betting Trends
- 67% of the bets and 97% of the money are on the Twins on the moneyline.
- 82% of the bets and 85% of the money are on the over.
- 68% of the bets and 85% of the money are on the Twins to cover the run line.
Twins Betting Trends
The Twins have failed to cover the run line in five straight games
The Twins have lost three of their past five games
The Twins have won 36 of their 69 road games this season
The Twins are 51-37-4 as favorites this year
Rays Betting Trends
The Rays have covered the run line in five straight games
The Rays have won three of their past five games
The Rays have lost 36 of their 73 games at Tropicana field
The Rays are 5-4-1 to the over in their past ten games
Twins at Rays Weather Forecast for Thursday
