With the Labor Day weekend coming to a close, our MLB staff compiled five MLB best bets and predictions for Monday, September 2.
These MLB best bets include three moneyline picks and over/under predictions for Red Sox vs Mets, Pirates vs Cubs and more.
MLB Best Bets & 5 Predictions for Monday Labor Day
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Monday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
| 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:40 p.m. | |
  | 4:10 p.m. | |
  | 4:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Kevin Rogers's Guardians vs Royals Best Bet: Guardians Looking for Revenge
By Kevin Rogers
This is a great spot to back the Guardians here, looking to avenge a home series loss to the Royals from last week.
If it wasn't for a late rally in the final game of their 4-game set, Kansas City would have pulled off a crucial sweep, but Cleveland salvaged the final contest.
Gavin Williams closed as a -165 favorite against the Royals last week in a 6-1 loss but has been flipped to pick-em territory for Cleveland. Williams has been a different pitcher away from Progressive Field by posting a 3.03 road ERA compared to a bloated 7.54 ERA at home.
Kansas City is back home after dropping all four games in Houston this past weekend to extend its losing streak to five.
Michael Wacha was knocked around at Cleveland in his last start by giving up five runs in six innings of a 7-5 loss. Wacha has been excellent at home this season, but this Royals' team is tough to back until they get things back on track.
Let's back the Guardians here at +100 and play them to -110.
Pick: Guardians ML (+100 | Play to -110)
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Sean Paul's Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Best Bet: More Runs on the Way?
By Sean Paul
We’re doing this again, huh? Back to the well for another try on Diamondbacks vs Dodgers over.
The Dodgers and Diamondbacks obliterated the over in all three of the first four games of this series, scoring 14, 17 and 19 runs.
Why should this game be different? It’s still two of the best offenses in the sport with the Diamondbacks ranking first in MLB with a 132 in August and the Dodgers ranked seventh with a 116 wRC+.
I don’t see any justification for this game being under single digits.
The Dodgers send Jack Flaherty to the mound, who enters with a strong 3.49 ERA in five starts since being traded to LA. He’s getting used to dealing with traffic in more ways than one — in the busy L.A. streets and on the basepaths. Flaherty’s WHIP sits at 1.29 with an opponent batting average of .257 with the Dodgers. That's a tough formula against the D-Backs, who punish righty pitching.
Another former Tigers pitcher, Eduardo Rodriguez opposes Flaherty for Arizona. After missing over three months with an injury, Rodriguez has returned to mixed results, posting a 5.06 ERA and 4.20 FIP in 21 innings spanning five starts. The biggest concern for E-Rod is his career-worst strikeout per nine (6.75) and a second-worst HR/9 (1.27.)
All those factors make the over a terrific bet on Labor Day.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-120 | Play to -140)
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Alex Kolodziej's Red Sox vs Mets Best Bet: Location May Determine the Total
Monday's spot feels like a good time to go contrarian on 'em.
Our Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams PRO System (53%) recommends taking the under when two winning teams match up and the bulk of tickets in our MLB betting trackers are on the over.
This is exactly the case for Red Sox vs. Mets.
Fenway is one of the best parks for creating runs, while Citi Field is one of the worst. If you're into taking a fade approach, the under 7.5 (+100) is the way to go, with public support expecting runs.
Pick: Under 7.5 (+100)
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Greg Liodice's Red Sox vs Mets Best Bet: Mets Looking to Stay Hot
By Greg Liodice
The New York Mets are fresh off sweeping the Chicago White Sox. Starting today, they square off against different colored Sox this time as the Boston Red Sox stroll into Flushing.
Luis Severino takes the mound for the Mets against Brayan Bello for Boston. Severino’s had an infuriating season. His numbers are decent (9-6, 3.96 ERA), and I’m sure skipper Carlos Mendoza is more than OK throwing him out when needed, but you never know what you’re getting out of him.
He’s in the bottom tier in K%, Whiff% and BB%, while he throws an elite fastball, his Barrel% is in the 82nd percentile and his Hard-Hit Rate is in the 75th.
What keeps him from being a legitimate pitcher is that his breaking ball is severely lacking, ranking in the 15th percentile in Off-Speed Value.
The Red Sox actually do a solid job at hitting – ranking in the top 10 percent in Hard-Hit rate – but I’m more comfortable backing Sevy at this juncture. Boston has been incredibly inconsistent and had a subpar month of August going 13-16, including dropping a series to the Tigers.
Both the Mets and the Red Sox are in a respective race for Wild Card positioning, but I have more faith in the Mets going forward. They’re 12-6 in their past 18 games and are getting incredible production from Francisco Lindor (who has a 30-game on-base streak), Mark Vientos and Pete Alonso.
With -125 odds, I think it’s decent value to back the Mets and I’ll go as far as betting it to -135.
Pick: Mets ML (-125 | Play to -135)
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Mike Ianniello's Pirates vs Cubs Best Bet: Pittsburgh's Second Half Disaster
Jared Jones looked brilliant for the Pirates early in the season but missed nearly two full months on the injured list. He struggled in his return from the IL allowing five runs against these very Cubs. He allowed two home runs and walked three batters while striking out just four in four innings.
He could be in for another rough start against a Chicago team that has been hitting everything. The Cubs rank third in the league with a .339 wOBA and 120 wRC+ over the last month. They lead the league with a .356 wOBA over the last two weeks.
Rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong has gotten red hot at the plate, batting .362 with a .979 OPS over the last two weeks. He along with Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner and Miguel Amaya are all batting at least .300 with an OPS over .770 during that stretch.
Pittsburgh has been in complete disarray since the All-Star break. The Buccos are just 15-25 over the second half — the worst record in the National League. Their offense has gone cold and the bullpen has been atrocious.
Jameson Taillon just beat his former team last week and I expect him to again on Labor Day.
Pick: Cubs ML (-138 | Play to -145)
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