After a loaded slate of college football Thursday through Labor Day Monday, Major League Baseball is back with all 30 teams in action for Tuesday.
Read on for our five MLB best bets and Tuesday moneyline picks, which include five predictions for Phillies vs Blue Jays, Red Sox vs Mets, Guardians vs Royals and Yankees vs Rangers.
MLB Best Bets & Tuesday Moneyline Picks, Predictions (9/3)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Tuesday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:07 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
| 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:40 p.m. | |
  | 8:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Alex Kolodziej's Phillies vs Blue Jays Best Bet: Our PRO System Moneyline Pick
Tuesday provides a good spot to continue fading one of the worst MLB second-half wagers.
History is not on Philadelphia's side. Our Average AL vs. NL Teams PRO System pinged this game as a favorable situation to back the Jays behind veteran Chris Bassitt. This system banks on home teams against interleague opponents.
The best part? The 61% win rate implies a fair moneyline price of -156.
Even scaling down for regression, a moneyline price of -110 is one of the better price grabs for this system, which pinpoints undervalued home squads.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (-115)
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Tony Sartori's Red Sox vs Mets Best Bet: The Undervalued Pitcher To Play
By Tony Sartori
The only reason that Boston is an underdog in this spot is because there are misleading ERAs between the starting pitchers.
Kutter Crawford possesses a 4.12 ERA through 28 starts, while David Peterson returns with a 2.83 ERA across his 16 appearances on the mound this season.
With that said, I would argue that Crawford is the superior pitcher. He outranks Peterson in WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate.
If we are in agreement on this, then the Red Sox are clearly the team to back at plus money because they also boast a stronger lineup. Entering this matchup, Boston paces New York in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and stolen bases.
Furthermore, this current Red Sox lineup sports a dominant .500 BA, .750 SLG and .540 wOBA through 13 combined career plate appearances against Peterson.
Pick: Red Sox ML (+115)
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Cody Goggin's Red Sox vs Mets Best Bet: The First-Half Moneyline Prediction
By Cody Goggin
On Tuesday, the Boston Red Sox will take on the New York Mets at Citi Field.
Starting for the Red Sox will be Kutter Crawford. Crawford ranks in the 89th percentile in chase rate, 49th percentile in whiff rate, and 44th percentile in strikeout rate among qualified starters this season.
He ranks in the 75th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and 62nd in average exit velocity allowed, but he ranks in just the ninth percentile in both barrel rate and ground ball rate as teams have been able to elevate against him.
The New York Mets have a league-average ground ball rate but also rank seventh in average exit velocity, sixth in barrel rate, and sixth in hard-hit rate. This has helped them rank seventh in wRC+ and 10th in wOBA this season. In the second half of the season, they rank 12th in wRC+ and 14th in wOBA, as they have fallen off a little bit but are still a respectable unit.
Boston’s offense ranks 10th in wRC+ and fifth in wOBA in the second half of the season. They also rank fifth in wOBA and 11th in wRC+ for the full season, as they have been relatively consistent. The Red Sox rank 18th in ground ball rate, fourth in hard-hit rate, eighth in barrel rate, and 10th in average exit velocity.
The Red Sox will face David Peterson. The left-hander has a 2.83 ERA this season but an xERA of 5.12. Peterson ranks in just the 15th percentile in strikeout rate and 24th percentile in walk rate.
He also ranks in the 17th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, 25th percentile in average exit velocity allowed, and 53rd percentile in barrel rate allowed. Peterson is in the 90th percentile in ground ball rate allowed as he is able to keep these hard-hit balls on the ground and limit damage, but he has still been extremely lucky this season.
These two offenses are similar, but I believe that Crawford is the better pitcher in this matchup, as Peterson has been very fortunate not to have a much higher ERA. I don’t believe that Boston should be the underdog in this matchup and will be looking to back them, specifically on the F5 moneyline as I believe they will have an early lead in this game.
Pick: Red Sox F5 ML (+115)
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D.J. James's Guardians vs Royals Best Bet: Kansas City Looking Sharper
By D.J. James
The American League Central crown is very much up in the air. The Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins are both within five games of the Cleveland Guardians.
On Tuesday, Brady Singer throws for the Royals in a huge matchup with the Guardians.
Singer has a 3.36 ERA and 4.38 xERA. Although he limits walks (under 7%) with decent strikeout stuff (over 22%), he boasts a below-average batted-ball profile.
His opponent will be Tanner Bibee of the Guardians. Bibee owns a 3.65 ERA and 3.71 xERA. He owns above-average walk and strikeout rates, alongside a slightly better batted-ball profile than Singer.
That said, the Royals are hitting well despite an injury to first baseman, Vinnie Pasquantino. They have a 116 wRC+, 7% walk rate, and a sub-20% strikeout rate in the last month against righties.
Cleveland has not hit well. They have a 94 wRC+, 8.2% walk rate, and 20.8% strikeout rate against righties in the last month.
Cleveland’s bullpen has taken a step back, too. Both bullpens have a worse xFIP than 4.30 and have not thrived with manufacturing strikeouts.
Bibee has been a bit sharper than Singer, but Bibee is tasked with a much better lineup, especially at the moment.
Pick: Royals ML (-102)
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Nick Martin's Yankees vs Rangers Best Bet: (EDITORIAL LANGUAGE)
By Nick Martin
Yesterday's 8-4 win improved the Yankees record on the road this season to 43-27, which is the best mark in baseball.
Tuesday's matchup looks like a good spot to ride that trend, as Carlos Rodon takes on Andrew Heaney.
The Rangers lineup has been one of the most disappointing units in baseball. Several key injuries haven't helped, but 138 games into the season, it's now pretty clear that the World Series champs' name power held strong a little too long, and they have been among baseball's least profitable sides to back.
Rodon and Heaney's recent form looks too comparable for the Yankees price to be as short as -130 (FanDuel) given the disparity in offensive play between these teams this season.
Rodon has pitched to an ERA of 3.43 with an xFIP of 3.71 in 39 and 2/3 innings of work since the All-Star break. He has struck out 11.21 batters per nine in that span with a .202 xBA allowed.
In the same span, Heaney has pitched to an ERA of 4.35 with an xFIP of 4.46 across 39 1/3 innings. He has allowed a .255 xBA while striking out 8.24 batters per nine.
The Yankees' lineup has been much less effective against left-handed pitching but has still been significantly better than the Rangers'. Since July 1st, New York has a wRC+ of 110 against LHP, while Texas has a wRC+ of 90.
At anything better than -140, I see value in backing the Yankees to win an important game on the road on Tuesday.
Pick: Yankees ML (-130)
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