The MLB slate is packed on Friday, September 13, with 15 games on tap. Our MLB betting experts have you covered with five MLB best bets for today's matchups — featuring a moneyline pick, two total predictions, and two player props for Red Sox vs Yankees, Dodgers vs Braves, Cubs vs Rockies and more
Read below for our MLB best bets for Friday, September 13.
MLB Best Bets, Prop Picks & Friday Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:45 p.m. | |
| 6:45 p.m. | |
  | 7:05 p.m. | |
  | 7:20 p.m. | |
  | 8:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Nick Martin's Marlins vs Nationals Best Bet: Take the Under
By Nick Martin
Friday's matchup between the Marlins and Nationals could potentially be a pitchers' duel, as both starters have quietly put together tremendous second halves. Edwardo Cabrera has pitched to a 3.13 ERA in 54 2/3 IP since the All-Star break, and will be opposed by DJ Herz, who has pitched to a 2.86 ERA in 44 innings in the same span.
Cabrera's stuff grades out better than average (102 Stuff+), and he has began to command his arsenal more effectively of late. He has allowed just one earned run across his last two starts, including seven scoreless innings versus the Phillies on Sunday. He holds 4.26 xFIP in his last 54 and 2/3 innings, and allowed a .219 batting average.
Cabrera's recent form still looks to be well below that of Herz. Across Herz last five starts he has pitched to an xFIP of 3.64 with an xBA of .205. He has also allowed an actual batting average of .154 and struck-out 10.25 batters per nine in that span.
Since August 1, the Marlins have hit to a wRC+ of just 80 against lefties, and have struck out 26.8% of the time. Washington ranks 16th with its wRC+ of 102 versus right-handed pitching in the same span.
A total of over/under 8 looks too high given the way both of these starters have pitched of late, as well as the modest offensive form of these lineups. At anything better than -120, I see value betting under 8.
Pick: Under 8 (-105)
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Justin Perri's Marlins vs Nationals Best Bet: F5 Over/Under Pick
By Justin Perri
The last time DJ Herz faced the Marlins he struck out 13 batters in six innings. I’m not sure if that’s exactly the type of performance we see today, but his stuff was not kind to the fish the last time they matched up and Herz’ current form should give him plenty of chance to keep Miami quiet in the first five innings.
In his most recent start against Pittsburgh, Herz had some extra juice and looked to be in effective form. It would take a large turn around, or some poorly timed mistakes for Miami’s offense to do serious damage. The Marlins offense has a 75 wRC+ in the last two weeks and are second-worst against lefties like Herz with a 73 wRC+ against southpaws on the year.
On the other side is Edward Cabrera, who has put together some very competitive starts in the last couple of weeks. Outside of pitching at Coors and getting hit hard by Philly, he’s looked trustworthy, and he just bounced back to blank that same Philly lineup in his last time out.
While he certainly has a bit of a propensity to have a bad outing, his changeup-fastball combos should keep the Nationals guessing. Washington has been an average-at-best offense this year against right handed pitching.
A cool day, along with these solid matchups should make under 4.5 for the first five innings a valuable wager to make.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 4.5 (-135)
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Cody Goggin's Red Sox vs Yankees Best Bet: Target Clarke Schmidt Player Props
By Cody Goggin
Clarke Schmidt has looked great this season. He has a 115 Stuff+ and a 2.34 ERA through 65 1/3 innings pitched. Schmidt made his return to the rotation last week after three months on the injured list and looked great, not allowing a run over 4 2⁄3 innings.
Schmidt has an 81st percentile whiff rate and 72nd percentile strikeout rate this season. He has a four-pitch mix with a cutter, sweeper, sinker, and curveball. The sinker is the only one of these pitches that doesn’t have a positive run value this season, as the rest have all been great pitches.
Tonight, Schmidt takes on the Red Sox, who have the third-highest strikeout rate in the league this season at 25.4%. The Red Sox offense looks intimidating when you look at full season numbers as they have had a top-10 offense this year. However, they have not been nearly the same as of late.
In the last 30 days, the Red Sox have a wRC+ of just 87, which ranks 25th in the league. They are 22nd in wOBA and 26th in OBP over this time period, as they have fallen to 26th in walk rate. Boston is also striking out at a very alarming rate of 26.7% over these last 30 days.
Schmidt has great stuff and has been an above average strikeout pitcher. Tonight he will face one of the more strikeout-heavy teams in the league. Boston’s offensive struggles down the stretch lead me to believe that this matchup is easier than the market implies, and Schmidt will be able to have a great outing.
I will be taking Schmidt to surpass 6.5 strikeouts at +105, as I think he is set up to have a strong night against this Red Sox offense.
Pick: Clarke Schmidt Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+120)
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D.J. James's Dodgers vs Braves Best Bet: Los Angeles Moneyline
By D.J. James
Landon Knack has been a great starter for the Los Angeles Dodgers, when called upon. He has a 3.00 ERA and 3.46 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is a touch under 90 MPH with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 26th percentile. His walk rate is exceptional with an above-average strikeout rate though, so this is where he has been effective.
His opponent will be the Atlanta Braves and Spencer Schwellenbach. He has been sharp as well, as one of the top prospects in Atlanta’s system. He has slotted in nicely with some crucial injuries to the Braves. His ERA is 3.78 against a 3.41 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is under 88 MPH with above average walk and strikeout rates. His Hard-Hit Rate is a little below-average, but he has a tendency to allow some fly balls.
Hitting-wise, the Dodgers have hammered righties. They have a 120 wRC+, 7.6% walk rate, and 20.5% strikeout rate in the last month. The Braves have not hit righties well. They have an 83 wRC+, 7.9% walk rate, and 21.9% strikeout rate.
The Dodgers’ bullpen has not been strong, while the Braves have been the best in MLB in the last month. That said, if Knack can handle a weak Braves’ lineup, he should be able to throw deep into the game and bring some relief to the Dodgers’ bullpen.
Look for the Dodgers to hit early and get the job done. Take them in Atlanta to win from -102 to -130.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline (-104)
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Tony Sartori's Cubs vs Rockies Best Bet: Regression Looming for Javier Assad
By Tony Sartori
The Chicago Cubs hand the ball to right-hander Javier Assad on Friday evening, and he should be a good fade candidate. While he boasts a commendable 3.14 ERA this season, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming.
Assad possesses a 4.58 xERA and ranks in the bottom-half of the league in xBA, walk rate and barrel rate. We are going to attack this expected regression by fading the right-hander in the prop market, as Assad also ranks in the bottom-quarter of the league in chase, whiff and strikeout rates.
Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 4.5, a total that he has failed to surpass in eight of his past 11 starts. Assad has also failed to clear this total in two of his past three starts against the Colorado Rockies.
Pick: Javier Assad Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)
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