It's a packed Saturday in Major League Baseball with 16 games on the schedule, and our baseball experts are all over it with their MLB best bets.
They have MLB picks, props and predictions for the following games: Rays vs Reds, Padres vs Cardinals and Mets vs Giants.
MLB Picks, Best Bets, Props, Predictions — 7/26
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 7:15 p.m. | |
  | 9:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rays vs Reds Player Prop Bet
By Derek Carty
THE BAT X is forecasting 0.36 walks for the Rays' Christopher Morel.
Oddsmakers are implying 0.25 walks, so I believe there is value here.
If you take the over, you’d be projected to win 31% of the time resulting in a 41% ROI with expected value of $41.12 (based on a $100 wager).
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Christopher Morel Over 0.5 Walks (+350)
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Padres vs Cardinals Home Run Prop
Fernando Tatis Jr. gets a matchup against Cardinals left-hander Matthew Liberatore, who has only allowed 1.03 HR/9 on the season but is due for some negative regression (40% fly-ball rate and 33.7% hard-contact rate).
The weather is great over in St. Louis, with temperatures in the low 90s and winds blowing out at 9 mph; WeatherEdge is giving this game a 20.7% increase to HRs.
I have the true odds on Tatis around +300.
Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run (+450)
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Mets vs Giants F5 Prediction
I'm going back to David Peterson and the Mets against another left-handed starter. We cashed easily with Peterson and Andrew Abbott last week, and the Giants feature a lineup that struggles against southpaws.
Peterson continues to rack up ground balls and quick innings. He's allowed two earned runs across three starts this month while also chipping in a scoreless inning in the All-Star Game. Walks can be an issue at times, but Peterson has just four free passes in 19 2/3 innings in July.
Speaking of walks, Robbie Ray matched a season high with five in his last outing. The clunker against Toronto (five earned runs) was his worst start of the season. It was just the second time he'd allowed more than three earned runs this year.
But even after the rough start, Ray has a sub-3.00 ERA supported by a 3.27 xERA. The new changeup has helped round out his arsenal, and he's shown some of the best command of his career.
Prior to the Blue Jays game, he had posted a 7.3% BB% since the start of May.
Both of these offenses have struggled mightily against lefties lately. New York and San Francisco rank 27th or worse in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ vs. LHP since the start of June.
These teams are also bottom 10 in BB% in that stretch, so free passes shouldn't be a concern.
Pick: First 5 Innings Under 4 (-110)
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