We have a full 15-game MLB slate for Saturday, September 13. The race for postseason spots is heating up, which means there are significant implications for several of today's games.
Additionally, there is betting value to be found, and our betting experts and systems have done just that. Continue reading for today's MLB best bets.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:07 p.m. | |
  | 4:10 p.m. | |
  | 6:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:15 p.m. | |
  | 9:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Derek Carty's Orioles vs Blue Jays: Great Value on Kirk's Prop
By Derek Carty
THE BAT X is forecasting 0.19 home runs for Blue Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk. Oddsmakers are implying 0.15 home runs, so I believe there is value here.
If you take the over, you’d be projected to win 16% of the time, resulting in a 23% ROI with an expected value of $23.15 (based on a $100 wager).
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Alejandro Kirk Home Run (+650)
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Doug Ziefel's Yankees vs Red Sox Best Bet: Back the Bronx Bombers
By Doug Ziefel
The Yankees have a big edge on the mound in this matchup, and it's going to be evident early as Brayan Bello, the Red Sox starter, will be unable to avoid traffic on the basepaths the first time through.
Given how this Yankees lineup has surged against righties over the past month, they are bound to cash in.
Using some math, Bello's price to allow Over 2.5 earned runs is -155, and his outs prop is set at 15.5. That means oddsmakers are expecting the Yankees to do the majority of their damage offensively in the first five innings.
Take the Yankees' first five over at a much better price.
Pick: Yankees F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+114)
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PRO's White Sox vs Guardians Best Bet: Fade Davis Martin's Ks
By Action PRO
PRO projects White Sox starter Davis Martin with 3.79 strikeouts today, which represents a nice 7.8% edge against the market.
With the line at 4.5, take the under and fade the right-hander against the Guardians today.
Pick: Davis Martin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145)
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Derek Carty's Astros vs Braves: Low Projection for Hunter Brown
By Derek Carty
There is a value opportunity on Astros ace Hunter Brown's pitching outs prop.
THE BAT X is projecting him to record 15.36 pitching outs, while oddsmakers are implying 17.54. The model believes there is a 66% chance he records fewer than 18 pitching outs, so there is value on the under at +128.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Hunter Brown Under 17.5 Outs (+128)
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Bet Labs' Dodgers vs Giants Best Bet: System Recommends the Under
By Bet Labs
The Silent Sharp Unders system targets regular-season MLB games where both teams are performing well, yet the total has quietly dropped from open to close.
These are games featuring competent, winning teams with recent success, stable weather conditions, and closing totals in a common scoring range, which is the case for the Dodgers and Giants tonight.
Despite both teams showing strength, the market subtly favors the under, likely due to matchup specifics, pitching, or pace factors.
By following this soft signal — when the public eye is more focused on win streaks and not totals — this system finds value in betting against inflated scoring expectations.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-105)
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