There are nine games on the Thursday MLB slate and our baseball betting experts have already looked over the day's MLB odds.
Several betting options are, of course, on the table, but we've zeroed in on Twins vs Rays — check out our MLB best bets and Thursday picks, predictions for the matinee American League clash below.
MLB Best Bets & 3 Thursday Picks, Predictions Today (9/5)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Thursday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 1:10 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
William Boor's Twins vs Rays Best Bet: Back Minnesota
By William Boor
Two teams battling for a spot in the postseason face off as the Rays host the Twins on Thursday afternoon. The Rays are a bit more desperate and should have plenty of motivation in this spot as they're trailing in the wild-card race, while Minnesota is fighting to hold on.
However, desperation only goes so far and I think the Twins have the edge in this spot. Not only do the Twins — who average 4.77 runs per game compared to Tampa Bay's 3.86 — boast the better offense, but they also have an edge on the mound.
Simply put, Pablo Lopez has been absolutely dominant over the past month. The Twins' starter hasn't given up a run in any of his past three starts (20 2/3 innings) and has pitched to a 4.05 ERA with a 3.50 xERA this season.
Will Lopez eventually give up a run? Of course. However, a look at his advanced metrics shows the dominance — not necessarily the string of scoreless innings — is legit. Lopez ranks in the 93rd percentile in chase rate, the 90th percentile in walk rate and the 98th percentile in fastball run value.
Conversely, Taj Bradley has struggled of late, giving up four or more earned runs in five of his past six starts. Bradley pitched to a 10.41 ERA over five August starts and ranks in just the 15th percentile in hard-hit rate and the second percentile in average exit velocity.
These starters are trending in completely opposite directions and with no signs of either trend reversing, I'll bet the Twins on Thursday afternoon..
Pick: Twins Moneyline (-136)
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Tony Sartori's Twins vs Rays Best Bet: All Signs Favor Twins
By Tony Sartori
There isn't a single advantage that Tampa Bay possesses in this matchup. Let's start with the pitching matchup, which features Pablo Lopez against Taj Bradley.
Lopez outranks Bradley in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, the Twins' bullpen outranks the Rays' in both FIP and xFIP.
That just leaves the hitting, which is yet another advantage for Minnesota. The Twins pace the Rays this season in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.
The only on-paper "edge" for the Rays is that they are on their home diamond. With that said, the Twins' road win percentage is north of Tampa's home win percentage.
Pick: Twins -1.5 (+128)
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D.J. James' Twins vs Rays Best Bet: Don't Overthink This
By D.J. James
Pablo López has been more than solid for the Minnesota Twins. The veteran right-hander has a 4.05 ERA and a 3.50 xERA with an average exit velocity below 88 mph and an above average hard-hit rate. His walk rate is exceptional (5.2%) and he also boasts a well above average strikeout rate (25.7%).
His opponent in Thursday’s matinee will be Taj Bradley and the Tampa Bay Rays. Bradley has been reliable, but holds a 4.35 ERA and a 4.26 xERA. His average exit velocity is above 91 mph and his hard-hit rate is in the 15th percentile. His strikeout rate is above average, but he struggles with control at times.
The Twins have a 98 wRC+ off of righties in the past month. They have a 5.7% walk rate and a 21.9% strikeout rate.
However, the Rays are much worse than average with a 69 wRC+, an 8% walk rate and a 26% strikeout rate. Since López doesn't issue many free passes, the Rays may have issues making contact and forcing him out of the game early.
Minnesota’s bullpen has been above average with a 3.83 xFIP, a 24.3% strikeout rate and a 7.6% walk rate in the past month. Tampa Bay has a 4.01 xFIP, a 24.3% strikeout rate and an 8% walk rate.
Since Bradley issues more walks, he could be exiting this game earlier, providing another boost to López and the Twins.
Bet the Twins on the moneyline, even though they are on the road. Take them from -130 to -150.
Pick: Twins Moneyline (-130)
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