After an electric ALCS Game 3 — and a boring 10-2 NLCS Game 4 — the MLB playoffs continue on Friday, Oct. 18, with Dodgers vs Mets,Yankees vs Guardians.
Our staff has an MLB best bet for both games, including a player prop for Starling Marte and a total for the late game.
Read on for our MLB Best Bets, Prop Picks & Predictions for today's LCS games.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:08 p.m. | |
  | 5:08 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Dodgers vs Mets Best Bet: Fade Marte
By Tony Sartori
Right-hander Jack Flaherty has been the Los Angeles Dodgers' ace. In 28 regular season starts, the right-hander posted a 13-7 record with a 3.17 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are similarly strong, as Flaherty ranks in the league's top half in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate.
This success has continued into the postseason, where Flaherty boasts a 2.92 ERA and 0.81 WHIP across two starts.
If we are backing Flaherty to put together a dominant performance, then a correlated outcome would be for some hitters on the New York Mets to struggle.
Enter Starling Marte.
Marte went 0-4 in Game 1 of this series, which makes sense considering his history against Flaherty. Through 26 career plate appearances against the right-hander, Marte possesses a .160 BA.
Flaherty's biggest strength is his ability to rack up strikeouts, which is also Marte's biggest weakness as a hitter. This season, Marte ranked in the league's bottom half in chase, whiff and strikeout rates.
Subsequently, Marte has a 30.8% strikeout rate and 27.3% whiff rate in those 26 plate appearances against Flaherty.
Pick: Starling Marte Under 0.5 Hits (+125) | Play to Under 0.5 (+115)
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Nick Martin's Yankees vs Guardians Best Bet: Low Over/Under
By Nick Martin
Luis Gil and Gavin Williams will make their first starts of the postseason on Friday, and each will be returning from lengthy lay-offs in this critical matchup.
After an entirely dominant start to the season, Gil was considerably less effective down the stretch. He posted a 4.20 ERA and 4.20 xFIP across his final ten starts. He was hard-hit 40% of the time in those outings and held an 11.5% strikeout minus walk rate.
Gil threw strikes just 61% of the time versus right-handed batters and walked 12.1% of batters faced this season. If he struggles with command, plate umpire Chris Segal will likely not give him many close pitches — totals are 141-120-10 (O/U) with Segal behind the plate.
Like Gil, Williams enters off a lengthy layoff — he hasn't pitched since September 22nd. He was also far less effective in the second half of the season. Williams pitched to a 5.55 ERA across 47 innings of work throughout his final ten starts. He posted a 4.27 xFIP in that span and allowed a .246 batting average.
The Yankees were the best team in the league versus right-handed pitching this season with a 120 wRC+ and posted the second-best fastball runs above average rating, which should make this a tough matchup for Williams. New York's offense hasn't missed a beat matching up against higher-quality arms this postseason, as they hold a league-leading 115 wRC+ alongside a 0.79 K/BB ratio and a 37.9% hard-hit rate.
Luke Weaver, Clay Holmes, and Tim Hill have each pitched in all three ALCS matchups, making the Yankees' elite bullpen suddenly look a little less frightening entering this matchup.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-105) | Play to 7.5 (-130)
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