After our look at the afternoon slate, this loaded Saturday in MLB continues as two of our baseball experts are targeting best bets for the evening games.
Nick Shlain is eyeing a player prop in the White Sox vs. Reds matchup while Kenny Ducey is backing this favorite later in the night.
Saturday Evening MLB Best Bets (May 6)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's evening slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
White Sox vs. Reds
Saturday, May 6 6:40 p.m. ET MLB.tv |
Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 Strikeouts -135  |
By Nick Shlain
Cincinnati Reds starter Nick Lodolo is one of the premier strikeout pitchers in all of baseball this season. His 44 strikeouts after six starts are the third-most among pitchers with only six starts this season.
One of my favorite bets on the slate for Saturday is Lodolo to go over 5.5 strikeouts at -135 on BetMGM Sportsbook.
Lodolo has gone over this number in five of his six starts this season.
The Chicago White Sox wouldn’t seem like the best matchup for Lodolo, on paper, as their projected lineup is made up entirely of right-handed batters. Lodolo has a 40% strikeout percentage against left-handed batters and his strikeout percentage goes down to 28% against right-handed batters.
Still, a 28% strikeout percentage is still very good.
The White Sox’s projected lineup has a combined strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching of 19% this year.
The matchup, on paper, isn’t the best, but that’s factored into the bet, as 5.5 is one of the lower strikeout props we'll see on Lodolo all year.
The White Sox were able to beat the Reds yesterday, but still managed to strike out seven times against opposing starter Hunter Greene.
Lodolo should do just fine in this spot at home.
Pick: Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 Strikeouts -135
Astros vs. Mariners
Saturday, May 6 9:40 p.m. ET MLB.tv |
Astros ML (-118)  |
By Kenny Ducey
Is J.P. France a good pitcher? Does it even matter against a Mariners team this bad?
To answer the first question, maybe.
France has been stellar, with a 2.33 ERA in 19 1/3 innings this year in Triple-A, while averaging 12.1 strikeouts per nine.
Last year, he averaged 11.1 strikeouts per nine in Triple-A and 13.4 in Double-A.
It’s clear he can miss bats, and with a 3.73 career ERA in the minors, it would seem the 28-year-old has earned himself a shot to pitch in the big leagues.
He’ll be in an excellent spot against a Mariners team that has struggling mightily to get the ball in play. They’ve struck out in a mammoth 30% of their plate appearances in the last two weeks and rank 20th in barrels per plate appearance.
Seattle owns just an 88 wRC+ in the last two weeks, so despite some fleeting results on offense for Houston lately, I think this one should be within reach.
On the flip side, the Astros are a respectable 14th in wRC+ against lefties, and Marco Gonzales has struggled with a 4.74 ERA and 4.54 xERA this season. Gonzales rarely strikes anyone out, and against a team that has a decent enough .161 ISO against southpaws, it could be a tricky evening.
I’m going to roll the dice here with the rookie and take an offense that has actually been much better on the road (103 wRC+ this year).
Pick: Astros ML (-118) |
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