We have a relatively light Major League Baseball slate scheduled for Monday, with only 10 matchups on the docket this evening. The first of those contests is set to begin at 6:40 p.m. ET as Twins vs Guardians kick off the festivities in Cleveland on MLB.TV, while Nationals vs Mets takes center stage at 7:10 p.m. ET on MLB Network.
Our MLB betting experts have locked in three bets for today's slate, including two picks against the spread and a first five innings (F5) moneyline prediction. Continue below for their MLB best bets and predictions for Monday, September 16.
MLB Best Bets & Monday Predictions — 9/16
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 9:40 p.m. | |
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Cody Goggin's Twins vs Guardians Best Bet: Minnesota Owns Slight Edge
By Cody Goggin
Pablo Lopez has been heating up as of late after a brutal start to his season. Lopez was having a terrible case of batted ball luck, but things have turned around for him as he now has a 3.88 ERA with a 3.48 xERA and a 3.24 FIP.
Lopez has a 74th percentile strikeout rate and 92nd percentile walk rate among qualified pitchers. He also has a 77th percentile average exit velocity allowed, 55th percentile hard hit rate allowed, and 42nd percentile barrel rate allowed, as he is largely above average.
Tonight he will take on the Cleveland Guardians, who rank 16th in wRC+ on the season but have a wRC+ of only 91 in the second half of the season, which ranks 23rd.
Matthew Boyd gets the start on the other side. The left-hander recently made his return to the big leagues and has impressed with a 2.18 ERA and 2.91 xERA over his first six starts with Cleveland.
Boyd has been able to put up a 30.7% whiff rate and 26.7% strikeout rate in this small sample, which would be among the best marks of his career. I don’t think that the 33-year old has miraculously improved in just this limited time but he has looked solid to this point. However, I’m not basing my opinion off of him based just on his 2024 metrics.
Minnesota has had one of the better offenses this year, ranking 7th in wRC+ and 10th in wOBA. They are struggling as of late, ranking 16th in wRC+ in the second half of the season, but they have still largely been a good offense this year. Minnesota also has a 108 wRC+ against left-handers this year, which is ninth in the league.
The Twins strikeout at the 10th-lowest rate in the league, which should help them combat one of the points where Boyd has found success. They also have the third-lowest ground ball rate in baseball, so if Boyd doesn’t strike this team out, then he may have issues keeping the ball in the park.
I think the Twins have the better offense in this matchup and certainly have an edge at starting pitcher. I believe Minnesota should be a heavier favorite in this game and my ideal way to play this mismatch is by taking the Twins at -128 on the first five innings moneyline, as I believe they will have a lead through the first half of this game.
Pick: Twins F5 ML (-128)
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Justin Perri's Nationals vs Mets Best Bet: New York First Five Innings Spread
By Justin Perri
Jake Irvin allowed only three men to reach base in his last matchup against the Braves, helping the Nationals win 5-1 over a different divisional foe, but don't let one performance change the narrative around Irvin. He has been in bad form as of late.
In the 11 starts prior to the most recent, he allowed 8+ base runners in nine of those starts and accumulated a 6.90 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP. That includes when he last visited Citi Field and the Mets scored six runs on him in six innings. Irvin always finds himself in jams and is often able to get out of most of them when facing weaker lineups, but when things go awry, it can get ugly.
With Sean Manaea on the mound for the Mets, they should have a good chance to be leading this contest after five innings. The sinker/sweeper/changeup combo from the New York southpaw has a good chance to keep the Nationals guessing, Washington ranks 24th in the MLB by wRC+ against left handed pitching.
My best bet is on the Mets to cover the first five innings run line (-0.5) at -125 via BetMGM. Good Luck!
Pick: Mets F5 -0.5 (-125)
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Greg Liodice's Astros vs Padres Best Bet: San Diego Run Line
By Greg Liodice
Houston certainly enjoyed a walk in the park in Los Angeles. The Astros swept the Angels and are riding a four-game win streak and now travel south to San Diego to face the Padres.
Barring a detrimental final swing, it looks like the Astros have the first Wild Card spot down pat. It’s mainly due to their ability to win in bulk, with a record of 25-16 through August and September.
That record could be so much better though. Out of those 16 losses, nine of those games were one-score games. Normally, I’d be comfortable backing the Astros run line due to their ability to make games close, but they’re sending out Spencer Arrighetti. The 24-year-old righty is having an up-and-down season, with a 4.72 ERA and 3.96 xERA.
He’s a fine pitcher and will get better as he gets older, but his inconsistencies drive me crazy. I don’t think he’ll have an easy time against the Padres who, like the Astros, are sitting pretty in the Wild Card race. Additionally, the Padres have two sluggers who can crush the ball. You may have heard of them – Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado.
Arrighetti lacks control over his fastball, which he throws a lot. 40% of his pitches are fastballs, but he only ranks in the 20th percentile in fastball run value, 37th in Hard-Hit Rate% and 43rd in Barrel%. I’ve noticed he’s been making an effort to throw a breaking ball more, in which he ranks in the 82nd percentile in Breaking Ball run value, but his fastball is vulnerable.
Not only are the Padres home, but when they’re facing a right-handed pitcher who struggles with hard-hit balls, they crush the opposition. Factor in the fact that they’re sending out Yu Darvish tonight, who has fared well since returning from injury, I think the Padres run line is a high-value play.
Pick: Padres -1.5 (+165)
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