It's Thursday, Oct. 12 and we've got a Game 4 NLDS showdown between the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Phillies lead 2-1 in the series and will play at Citizens Bank Park in this Thursday night battle. Can Philadelphia wrap things up at home? Our experts weigh in with their Braves-Phillies best bets and MLB playoff predictions below.
Today's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:07 p.m. ET | |
| 8:07 p.m. ET | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Braves vs. Phillies
By D.J. James
Spencer Strider was the kryptonite for the Philadelphia Phillies’ offense this season. He allowed seven earned runs over 26 innings against them in the regular season and then just one earned run in his lone postseason start against Philadelphia. Yes, the Phillies have eight guys on the active roster who held an xwOBA over .320 from August 1 to the end of the regular season and also had a 119 wRC+ and a .822 OPS off of righties in that same timeframe, but Strider should keep them in check once again.
Strider's 34.9% ground-ball rate is his lone shortcoming. Otherwise, he's one of the best pitchers in baseball. His Barrel Rate is 8%, his Average Exit Velocity is 88.4 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate is 35.6%. He also has a 36.8% strikeout rate against a 7.6% walk rate. His pitching run value ranks in the 91st percentile, and much of his success comes from his breaking ball.
Yes, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are menaces against righties, but outside of those two, Brandon Marsh, and Trea Turner, no one else in Philadelphia's lineup had a xwOBA over .320 against Strider. Yes, that's is a small sample size, but Strider is a nightmare for opponents.
With that being the case, he should go over his strikeouts total. Take it to 8 (-120).
Pick: Spencer Strider Over 7.5 Strikeouts
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Braves vs. Phillies
The Braves will start their lefty platoon lineup with Kevin Pillar in for Eddie Rosario in left field against Phillies starter Ranger Suarez. I expect Atlanta to play this similar to how the Phillies utilized Cristian Pache in Game 2 against Max Fried. Pache came out of the game after Fried was pulled and the same should be true for Pillar once Suarez exits the game.
If the Phillies manage Suarez the same way in Game 4 that they did in Game 1, Pillar will only face him once before a right hander comes in to face Marcell Ozuna, Rosario and Travis D'Arnaud. Because Pillar is surrounded by righties, he's unlikely to face Philadelphia's top lefty arms — Gregory Soto or Jose Alvarado — in the middle innings.
Pillar will, at most, get two at-bats against Suarez. As a result, he shouldn't be plus money to finish the game hitless. I'd bet Pillar u0.5 hits and/or bases at -120 or better.
Pick: Kevin Pillar Under 0.5 Hits
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