Our MLB best bets for April Fools' Day include two total bets, one team prop and one moneyline prediction for Monday's slate of baseball, with our first bet of the day coming in a game scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET, and then we'll go all the way through the evening with our final bet placed on a matchup slotted for 10:10 p.m. ET.
Our experts have made picks for Royals vs. Orioles, Red Sox vs. A's, Yankees vs. D-Backs and Giants vs. Dodgers.
Let's break down the latest odds and dive into our top four MLB best bets and picks for Monday, April 1.
MLB Best Bets for Monday, April 1
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:35 p.m. | |
  | 9:40 p.m. | |
  | 9:40 p.m. | |
  | 10:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Royals vs. Orioles
By John Feltman
Instead of trusting Dean Kremer and laying juice with the O's, their team total is the best bang for your buck in this spot. The Royals are sending out right-hander Michael Wacha, who is coming off a solid 2023 season.
I have legitimate concerns about the particular matchup since he has not faired well against the current Orioles hitters. For instance, the O's are hitting .321 against Wacha over 112 at-bats.
Wacha sported a 3.22 ERA last season, but his 4.47 xFIP suggests he was very fortunate. He allowed 1 home run per fly ball last season, with a modest 39% ground ball rate.
Santander, Mullins, Mountcastle, and Hays are a combined 36-66 with six HRs and 16 RBIs against Wacha in their careers. After a poor showing on Sunday, they could not have asked for a better matchup.
It is going to rain all day in Baltimore, but the weather should clear up in time before the first pitch. Wacha is a regression candidate moving forward, and I'll happily back the O's bats at plus money.
Pick: Orioles Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (+105)
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Red Sox vs. Athletics
By Kenny Ducey
There are two pitchers squaring off in a late-night battle that I’m very intrigued by early this season, and both will be pitching to some incredibly suspect lineups.
I’m talking, of course, about Tanner Houck and Joe Boyle.
The Red Sox righty showed up to camp with some extra velocity, crediting a fully-healthy back which took a bit to heal after surgery in late 2022, and looked absolutely breathtaking with a 2.40 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 15 innings.
The punchouts are incredibly encouraging given we saw them pile up in bunches when Houck came out of the bullpen to start his career, which made him border on un-hittable given the low expected batting average on his arsenal.
He took a step back last season, though. Prior to being struck in the face by a line drive he’d begun to look more like himself, and now he’ll be out to re-establish his form with a soft matchup in Oakland.
On the other side of the coin, we have Boyle and his 80-grade fastball, which can hit triple-digits and looked very effective in three starts late last season. Boyle managed to strike out a strong 25% of the batters he faced, producing a strong 32% whiff rate and low .129 xBA on his slider.
I trust both of these guys to get the job done here against two poor lineups, particularly Oakland’s which mustered up just 11 runs in a four-game series loss to the Guardians.
I also quite like many of the arms in the Boston bullpen – save for Joely Rodriguez – and Oakland should have Mason Miller back available and a relatively well-rested stable which should lead us to a rock fight.
I'll play the under down to eight at -118.
Pick: Under 8 (-105)
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Yankees vs. Diamondbacks
By Sean Zerillo
Both pitch modeling metrics (101 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 103 Pitching+ in 2023) and projections (projected FIP range 4.47-5.12) expect Ryne Nelson to be better this season than he was in 2023 (5.31 ERA, 5.27 xERA, 5.30 xFIP).
Nelson has a solid spring (15 1/3 IP, 5 R, 7 BB, 16 K) while tinkering with throwing his slider harder, which was already his best pitch (106 Stuff+).
I prefer Luis Gil, as do many other projections (projected FIP range 4.37-4.59). He also had a solid spring (13 2/3 IP, 3 R, 4 BB, 20 K) alongside a 119 Stuff+ rating.
In this matchup, the Yankees also have a slightly better bullpen and a superior offensive group (eight points better in projected wRC+ in my model).
Still, Arizona has the defensive (4th vs. 10th in Defensive Runs Saved in 2023) and base running advantages (6th vs. 28th in BsR in 2023).
I projected the Snakes as slight favorites on Monday. Bet their moneyline to +103.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+106)
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Giants vs. Dodgers
A total that opens below nine in a Dodgers game is going to peak my interest. This is one of those games.
Los Angeles has a dominant offense and it hasn't disappointed. The Dodgers are averaging 6.6 runs in their six games. They have scored five or more runs in every game.
Tonight, the home Dodgers draw Keaton Winn, who has pitched fewer than 43 innings in the major leagues. The Dodgers are familiar with Winn, though. They faced him late last season and got to him for six runs in 5 1/3 innings. Winn had a 4.68 ERA last year.
The Giants are giving up seven runs per game. Their middle relief pitching and fielding don't look up to par.
San Francisco, though, averaged 6.2 runs during its four games against the Padres.
The Giants draw James Paxton, who is in LA's rotation because of injuries to Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler and Emmet Sheehan. The 35-year-old Paxton had a 4.50 ERA last season.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-120)
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