MLB odds, picks for Saturday's four playoff games continue this evening with Phillies vs. Braves and Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers.
Continue reading below for odds and our favorite picks for tonight's MLB playoff games.
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:03 p.m. | |
  | 4:45 p.m. | |
  | 6:07 p.m. | |
  | 9:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
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Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
By Kenny Ducey
While it may seem on the surface that Merrill Kelly has improved upon his putrid numbers against the Dodgers, I’m not sold at all that he will make it out of this start alive.
Yes, Kelly went from an 8.25 ERA in five starts versus the Dodgers last season to a tidy enough 3.98 ERA in four outings this year versus Arizona’s division foe. That doesn’t mean he’s improved at all. In fact, the Dodgers hit .330 against Kelly last year and hit .340 versus the right-hander this year, walking 13 times in 20 1/3 innings after walking 15 times against Kelly in 24 innings last year.
Given Kelly’s expected batting average against the Dodgers this year sits firmly over .300, he was lucky to perform as well as he did.
Kelly’s been fortunate to make it through four starts against the Dodgers without allowing a home run, but against the team with the second-best Isolated Power in the league his luck will likely turn around on Saturday.
Between Kelly’s concerning 9.4 walk rate — which should benefit the league’s most patient offense — and the amount of hits he’s allowed to this side, I don’t think he will make it through even four innings here.
Arizona has not leaned on its bullpen a ton this year, sitting in the middle of the league in innings pitched, but Torey Lovullo should have no option here. He will yank Kelly with the danger mounting early and help us cash this bet.
Pick: Merrill Kelly Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-115)
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Rangers vs. Orioles
By D.J. James
Kyle Bradish is becoming an ace for the Baltimore Orioles, but he has had his shortcomings this season. Yes, he had a 49.1% groundball rate, but his Average Exit Velocity was 90 mph. The Rangers ranked third in Hard-Hit Rate and second in Average Exit Velocity as a unit. Since Bradish is giving up hard contact consistently, this is a mismatch.
In addition, the Rangers had a 113 wRC+ and .788 OPS off of righties since August 1. They held a 10.2% walk rate, too. Bradish does not walk many, but this could help Texas. Looking a bit deeper, the Rangers have nine hitters eclipsing a .310 xwOBA and eight above a .320. Corey Seager, Mitch Garver and Evan Carter are all above .365 since August 1 off of righties.
Yes, the Baltimore bullpen is one of the best in the playoff field, but the Rangers could cause some damage late in the game, especially with Félix Bautista out. They do not have the formidable options in the back-end of the bullpen. Yennier Cano is solid, but Texas should be able to get to the rest of the relievers.
Texas has too strong of a lineup for this team total. Yes, the Rangers are on the road against a team that has not appeared in the postseason since 2016. They are solid top-to-bottom and can exploit Bradish’s few weaknesses.
Take Texas’ team total over to 4 (-125).
Pick: Rangers Team Total Over 3.5 (-113)
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Twins vs. Astros
By Tony Sartori
After failing to crack a spot on the Wild Card Round roster, right-hander Bailey Ober takes the mound for the Minnesota Twins to start the Divisional Round against the Houston Astros.
Ober put together a strong season, going 8-6 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He hit a bit of a rough patch in August and was subsequently sent down to Triple-A for a re-adjustment.
Since getting called back up, Ober is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA over four starts. I would be shocked if we see any regression in the postseason from the right-hander as he ranks in the 72nd percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, Chase%, BB% and Hard-Hit%.
Meanwhile, future Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander gets the ball for Houston. It was yet another successful campaign for Verlander, who went 13-8 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through 27 starts.
Ending the season in particularly good form, he posted a 1-0 record with a 1.89 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over his final three outings. There were six or fewer total runs scored in two of those three games.
This success is likely to continue against Minnesota, a team he has dominated over the past half-decade. Over his past six starts against the Twins, Verlander is 5-1 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.50 WHIP.
There were seven or fewer total runs scored in five of those six outings.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-105)
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Phillies vs. Braves
The Phillies have arguably the deepest bullpen of all teams remaining in the MLB playoffs, and manager Rob Thomson is sure to be aggressive in using it for Game 1 of the NLDS against Spencer Strider. The top of the Braves lineup is historically good with Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley, and all three dominate left-handed pitching.
Given that the Phillies have an off day on Sunday, there is no way the Phillies will let Suarez see the top of the order a third time. That maxes him out at 18 batters, with the potential to go even shorter if he runs into some trouble.
There's a scenario where Suárez only goes once or 1.5 times through this order if he's struggling to consistently get outs or a high leverage spot arises in the third or fourth inning.
In this same Game 1 spot last year, Suárez threw 3 1/3 innings with eight base runners allowed and one run conceded. He pitched in and out of trouble but had a very short leash.
Now with the off day looming and two high-leverage righties — Orion Kerkering and Jeff Hoffman — waiting for the top pocket of Atlanta hitters, it will be a short outing for Suárez in Game 1.
Pick: Ranger Suárez Under 13.5 Outs Recorded (-129)
