We have a shorter eight-game slate today, starting early with Diamondbacks vs Marlins at 1:10 PM at LoanDepot Park on MLB.TV, and ending with Dodgers vs Pirates at 6:40 PM at PNC Park on MLB.TV
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for Thursday, June 11.
Below are 5 expert MLB best bets today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:10 PM | |
  | 2:10 PM | |
  | 3:10 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Matt Trollo's Diamondbacks vs Marlins Prediction
By Matt Trollo
It must seem like I have a vendetta against Merrill Kelly at this point because I’ve been on the other side of most of his starts this year. The short version is, that’s not going to change here.
He had allowed nine runs over his previous 34.1 innings heading into his last start, where the Nationals smoked him for seven runs, but that was a bit misleading.
Kelly had just an 8.8 K-BB% and was allowing 14.7% Barrels/BBE over that span. On the season (10 starts), he’s produced a mere 4.6 K-BB% with 16.4% Barrels/BBE.
The 5.71 ERA fits his estimator range (4.56 Bot ERA/93 Pitching+ – 7.62 xERA) with only his pitch modeling below five.
A lot of Tyler Phillips’ work has been out of the bullpen, but mostly in two to three-inning stints before transitioning to a larger workload in a starting role a few outings back (behind an opener last time).
The 7.3 K-BB% is not great, and we probably should not expect it to improve in the transition from relief to starting, but the contact profile (6.2% Barrels/BBE, 34.9 HardHit%) has produced a 3.86 xERA. His contact neutral indicators (SIERA, xFIP) are closer to four and a half, with a Bot ERA (3.85) that matches his Statcast profile.
None of it is anywhere near his 2.08 ERA (83.9 LOB%), but it is better than Kelly's.
We may also be able to establish an offensive superiority for the Marlins, too. They’re 101 wRC+ at home and 96 against RHP, which compares favorably to Arizona’s 89 on the road and 88 against RHIP.
The gap closes when we consider only the projected lineup against RHP since last season, but it still favors the Marlins by four points in wRC+ (103 – 99). The Arizona projected lineup has a seven-point edge (105–98) over the last 30 days.
The Marlins may also be able to exploit Kelly's 105-point platoon split this year (59 points since last year) with six or seven LHBs. Batters from that side own a .416 wOBA with 10 of the 13 home runs against him (five on the road).
Both teams will likely field quality defenses. Projecting lineups is always a bit more volatile for day games after night games, but this is probably the one clear Arizona advantage, currently 10 FRV (Fielding Run Value), if those lineups hold. (I have projected catchers who did not catch Wednesday night).
Bullpen estimators over the last 30 days are very comparable (Marlins 18th, Diamondbacks 19th), and Sean Zerillo also ranks them his 17th (Marlins) and 18th (Diamondbacks) rated bullpens overall.
I’m writing this without full bullpen usage information for Wednesday, where both starters went four innings, but neither team had much reason to deploy high-leverage relievers in a blowout.
Regardless, I see as much value in the F5 line as I do in the full game. It’s a matter of personal preference, and I even considered splitting the bet. The Miami team total (3.5 -146 FD or 4.5 +120 B365) also looks good.
Pick: Marlins ML (-125 or Better)
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Tanner McGrath's Rangers vs Royals Best Bet
Our own Sean Zerillo projects some value on the Over in this matchup.
While the consensus line sits around 10.5 juiced slightly toward the Under, Zerillo projects this total over 11 runs, representing around a 3% edge against the market
As a reminder, you can see all of Zerillo's MLB game projections with an Action PRO Subscription. Find his projected lines every day on the PRO Projections tab.
If you want even more information about this handicap, Zerillo's new tool, B.A.R.T.O.L.O., will go live very soon.
Here's all the statistical input information Zerillo uses to handicap games:
Pick: Over 10.5 (-110 or Better)
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Derek Carty's Cubs vs Rockies Pick
By Derek Carty
THE BAT X is forecasting 4.35 strikeouts for Cubs starter Edward Cabrera compared to 4.94 strikeouts implied by the oddsmakers, so I believe there is value in this matchup against the Rockies.
If you take the under, you'd be projected to win 56% of the time, resulting in a 25% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $24.76. This play is good down to at least -104.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Edward Cabrera Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-104 or Better)
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Frank Ammirante's Dodgers vs Pirates Prediction
I'm going with Over 9.5 runs in this matchup.
Both teams have poured on runs in this series, combining for 15 and 17 runs in the first two games.
While Justin Wrobleski has been effective, he allows a ton of balls in play, as highlighted by his abysmal 16.1% strikeout rate. His 4.51 SIERA is much higher than his 2.62 ERA, so he's ripe for regression. He's thrived on location, but this is a lefty with a well-below-average 95 Stuff+. It feels like it's only a matter of time before he gets hit hard again.
Then you have to consider that Mitch Keller has hit a major rough patch, allowing six and seven earned runs in his last two starts. It's hard to see him getting back on track against a star-studded Dodgers lineup.
With both bullpens also struggling in this series, that's the cherry on top.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-110 or Better)
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Kev Mahserejian's Braves vs White Sox Best Bet
These first-place teams will duel with mediocre veteran left-handed SPs in this matchup.
Martin Perez vs. Anthony Kay should be a late-September matchup for two teams out of contention, yet quality starts to the 2026 season have them battling in June for potential playoff teams.
Perez has an excellent 3.02 ERA this season, backed by peripherals just one run above this rate. However, his past three starts are concerning. He has a 3.45 ERA, 4.67 xERA, and 4.69 SIERA since May 24 and is a worse pitcher on the road (.339 wOBA) than at home (339). Luck will sway the other way for Perez, as his low-velocity arsenal will not be effective all season.
While Kay is having a worse season than Perez, he has been pitching similarly since May 9. Also, Kay is much better at home (.326 wOBA allowed) than on the road (.386 wOBA allowed). Furthermore, the White Sox are a better offense against LHP (115 wRC+) than the Braves (107 wRC+).
Both bullpens are fresh, and both the White Sox and Braves have their best hitters on the IL, but the White Sox have had the minor league depth to compensate for their losses.
Expect Chicago to complete the sweep against the Braves today.
Pick: White Sox ML (-110 or Better)
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