We have a loaded Tuesday slate on the diamond, and our staff of MLB betting analysts is here to share our MLB best bets, which include today's top picks, props and predictions.
Picks include sides for Yankees vs Raysand Royals vs Cardinals, alongside a player prop on an NL Cy Young candidate in Braves vs Diamondbacks.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:50 p.m. | |
  | 7:45 p.m. | |
  | 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Yankees vs. Rays
By Cody Goggin
Carlos Rodon was shredded in June, posting a 7.76 ERA after posting a 2.48 and 3.67 in April and May, respectively. He owns a 4.45 ERA, 4.49 xERA and 3.92 SIERA.
Among qualified pitchers, Rodon ranks in the 60th percentile in strikeout rate and 69th percentile in walk rate. But he's struggled with hard contact, ranking in the seventh percentile in average exit velocity allowed and 18th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed.
He’ll battle the Rays, who rank 16th in wRC+ and 21st in wOBA. The Rays strike out at the seventh-highest rate in baseball, including the fifth-highest mark against lefties. Tampa Bay ranks 24th in hard-hit rate and 27th in average exit velocity, so they may be unable to take advantage of Rodon’s biggest weakness.
New York’s offense has been among the best in the league this season, even with their recent slide. They rank third in wRC+ and fourth in wOBA, with the second-most home runs in the league.
Ryan Pepiot will start for the Rays. He's looked good this year, striking out 83 batters in 75 2/3 innings with a 1.12 WHIP. He owns a 4.40 ERA and a 4.00 xERA. He's struggled with walking batters and allowing hard contact, two areas where the Yankees have done well.
The Yankees are rightfully favorites in this matchup, but I think the moneyline should be tipped further in their direction.
Both starting pitchers are relatively equal, but New York’s offense is the best unit in this game, giving them an edge.
Pick: Yankees ML (-120) | Play to ML (-125)
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Royals vs. Cardinals
By D.J. James
The St. Louis Cardinals have hammered right-handed pitching lately and will face one in Michael Wacha and the Kansas City Royals on Tuesday.
Wacha owns a 3.73 ERA and 3.83 xERA. He has always limited hard contact, but he's not inducing as many ground balls, and he'll never be a high-strikeout pitcher.
His opponent will be Andre Pallante, who has been serviceable for the Cardinals. Pallante has a 4.00 ERA and sub-4.00 xERA, so he is relatively close to Wacha. He has a solid batted-ball profile, including a super-high ground-ball rate (61%).
The Cardinals have hit righties well lately, with a 114 wRC+ against the side over the past month.
The Royals own an 86 wRC+ in the last month against righties. They also have hit plenty of ground balls, which should play into Pallante’s game plan.
In relief, the Cards have been pretty bad, posting a 4.54 xFIP since June 9. However, the Royals are right there at 4.35. Both relief units struggle with command and free passes.
However, Pallante should be able to pitch deeper into this game because of how weak the Royals have been against righties. They should hit a lot of grounders.
Look for the Cards to do just enough to force Wacha out of the game.
Pick: Cardinals ML (-115) | Play to ML (-135)
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Braves vs. Diamondbacks
By Tony Sartori
NL Cy Young contender Chris Sale gets the ball for Atlanta, and he should be an excellent candidate to back. He is 11-3 through 16 starts this season with a stellar 2.71 ERA and 0.91 WHIP.
Specifically, we're going to back Sale in the strikeout market. Among qualified pitchers, the southpaw ranks in the 88th percentile or higher in chase, whiff and strikeout rate.
Subsequently, he's recorded seven or more strikeouts in 12 of his 14 starts.
This success is likely to continue against Arizona. The Diamondbacks' current lineup possesses a fade-worthy 26.9% strikeout rate and a 25.6% whiff rate through 78 combined career plate appearances against Sale.
Pick: Chris Sale Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-145) | Playable at number
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