Throughout the next couple of months, I'll be sporadically writing a new piece here at Action Network, breaking down some of the marquee matchups of the day while providing analysis and ideas on how to fade specific starting pitchers via hitting props.
I'll also add some notes from the other games on the slate toward the end of the article to provide ample information before you place your bets. Whether on the total bases or home run side, there's always a way to attack pitching matchups.
This article will include weather breakdowns, potential negative regression for pitchers, and historical matchups between the hitter and pitcher. Sometimes, these games are stay-aways. But luckily for us, Patrick Corbin pitches today, and the Mets offense could have a field day.
Without further ado, let's head to the marquee matchups for this Wednesday's slate.
Cubs vs Orioles
Shota Imanaga (L) vs. Corbin Burnes (R)
Given both starters' dominance on the mound, this game is challenging to bet into player props.
Corbin Burnes’ 2.32 ERA (3.00 xERA) sits second in the AL Cy Young race, and he's earned a quality start in 12 of his last 13. However, he has allowed a home run in five of his past six starts, so if you wanted to back a Cub here, there are options.
Dansby Swanson has faced Burnes 17 times in his career. He’s found the bleachers twice and is hitting .588 against the right-hander, the best mark on the team. Ian Happ has also seen Burnes well (.292 average), with three doubles and a home run across 24 head-to-head at-bats.
As for Shota Imanaga, the southpaw has finally begun to appear human (3.61 xERA). Imanaga has a 48.1% fly ball rate and is often flirting with the potential danger of being spurned by the long ball. He's also allowed a 9.8% barrel rate, ranking in the 16th percentile of qualified pitchers.
Is facing a pitcher with elite command and a 35% chase rate scary? Definitely, but Imanaga is also no stranger to allowing home runs. The Phillies hit a pair off him, and the Mets added three in a 10-run outburst in late June.
If you want to target an Oriole here, many ways exist. Baltimore has long crushed left-handed pitching, though I would be cautious, given the deep alley in left field. Pushing the fences back has dropped Camden Yards from 12th to 22nd year over year in Home Run Factor.
Adley Rutschman leads the O’s with seven home runs against left-handed pitching (207 wRC+). Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle all have an isolated power above .200 against southpaws.
If I had to choose a home run hitter from here, it would be Adley Rutchsman (+600). He's among the toughest outs in this O’s lineup — especially against lefties — and carries an +11 Run Value against the four-seam, which Imanaga throws 55% of the time.
Dodgers vs Phillies
Gavin Stone (R) vs. Cristopher Sanchez (L)
This is perhaps the most exciting game regarding a home run boost.
With the wind blowing out to left field at 16 mph, RotoGrinders' WeatherEdge database projects a +29% increase in potential home runs, based on a 21-game sample size of similarly conditioned games.
That could be trouble for the Dodgers again after Bobby Miller was tattooed last night. Gavin Stone takes the mound for LA, and while he’s been elite at limiting barrels (5.1%, 86th percentile), the wind at Citizens Bank can take routine flies and carry them into the stands.
Stone is around league average in allowing fly balls, and his underlying metrics suggest negative regression is coming. The right-hander has a 3.03 ERA, but his xERA (3.77) and xFIP (4.13) sit much higher. Most of that likely stems from a 0.68 HR/9 — every major projection site had pinned Stone closer to the 1.1 range.
The Phillies saw Stone once last season, and no player hit a home run, though Bryce Harper did finish 2-for-2 with a double and a walk. Harper returned from the injured list yesterday, though he went hitless in the 10-1 win.
Harper is the best Phillies hitter when it comes to right-handed pitching, with 13 home runs and a 159 wRC+. I wouldn’t hate a +310 bet on him at BetMGM to find the bleachers.
If you want to target one of the hottest hitters in baseball, Trea Turner has a 152 wRC+ against righties, albeit with less pop. But over the last 15 days, Turner has hit .370 with five home runs and a 1.107 OPS. He cranked a grand slam last night and is +450) to go yard at Parx.
Opposite Stone is Cristopher Sanchez, a heavy ground ball pitcher who has taken a huge step forward this season. Compared to last season, the right-hander has seen his ERA improve by a half-run and has dropped his barrel rate by 3%. His biggest issue has been a lack of whiffs and strikeouts (down from 24.2 to 20.6% this season).
You would think that negative regression will also come for Sanchez at some point. Why? He has a 0.18 HR/9 this season. He's allowed only two all year.
Last season, Sanchez had a 1.45 HR/9, but most projection sites have him in the 0.9 range. That 0.18 is unsustainable.
If you think tonight’s the night the home runs come in bunches against Sanchez, there are a few Dodgers you can look toward. Will Smith and Teoscar Hernandez are the most consistent lefty killers in this Dodgers lineup.
Hernandez has eight home runs and a team-best .330 ISO against southpaws, while Smith is not too far behind with six and .325, respectively. He also leads the Dodgers hitters in ISO (191), of those with 25+ plate appearances.
I would likely lean toward Teoscar in this one at +360. He has seen the ball well over the last week (.304 average), and it’s only a matter of time before the home runs follow (14.9% barrel rate). He is also elite vs. the changeup (+10 Run Value), which is Sanchez’s secondary pitch.
Other options can include Smith (+430) or even Andy Pages (+460). Although the latter has just two home runs against southpaws, Pages also carries a 148 wRC+ and is likely a better play than Smith in the total bases market.
Rockies vs Reds
Kyle Freeland (L) vs. Frankie Montas (R)
There's no hitting notes article that doesn't feature Great American Ball Park.
Cincinnati carries the highest Home Run factor in baseball, and the weather conditions look perfect for dingers on Wednesday night — 75-degree temps with double-digit winds to left-center field. Based on a 41-game sample size with similar conditions, RotoGrinders projects a +12.9% increase in home runs.
That brings us to Kyle Freeland. The southpaw ranks in the bottom 3% of qualified pitchers in xBA allowed, whiff rate, and strikeout rate (career-worst 12.9%). Yet, the soft-tossing lefty has managed three straight quality starts since returning from injury.
I imagine that does not last much longer, and the Reds should be able to do damage in an excellent run environment.
That brings us to Spencer Steer, who has often been my go-to against southpaws. He owns a 125 wRC+ and is an extra-base hit machine. While he has just three home runs against lefties, 59% of his hits against the side have gone for extra bases.
Steer is also on a power surge of late, with four home runs over his last seven days (1.192 OPS). He hit one last night against Colorado and is 1-for-1 with a homer against Freeland in his career.
I’ll likely be looking to back Steer somehow, whether total bases (over 1.5, -110) or a home run (+360).
Other Reds you can look toward include Tyler Stephenson, and I won’t blame you for wanting to bet Rece Hinds if he plays tonight. Hinds is a free-swinging power righty who has bombed two homers in his first two MLB games. Stephenson crushed two doubles and a home run last night and is second in Cincy in isolated power (.191) against lefties.
Frankie Montas is also a potential fade candidate. He has sometimes struggled to find his command and limit hard-hit balls (41.6%).
I don’t love many Rockies hitters in this matchup, but my favorite would likely be Brenton Doyle, given the run that he’s on.
Doyle has a 111 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, crushed a pair of home runs last night and has a 2.044 OPS (six home runs) in the month of July. His odds remain very high (+560) despite the power surge.
Nationals vs Mets
Patrick Corbin (L) vs. Luis Severino (R)
I’d be remiss not to include Patrick Corbin in some way tonight.
The southpaw ranks in the bottom 2% of qualified pitchers in xBA (.315), xERA (6.25) and hard-hit rate allowed (48.6%). He should struggle again against New York's lineup.
Corbin hasn't allowed a home run in four of his last five starts. But when he struggles with the long ball, it comes in bunches. He has allowed two-plus homers in four of his past nine starts (44%).
One of those multi-homer games came against the Mets! Corbin allowed three home runs across 5 1/3.
It shouldn't get any easier for the lefty on Wednesday. You can pick any player on the Mets you’d like, but I would focus on the trio of Pete Alonso, Mark Vientos and Francisco Lindor.
Alonso (+340) has 46 career at-bats against Corbin and is hitting .326 with five home runs (1.156 OPS). Despite his struggles at the plate this season, Alonso still carries an 11.9% barrel rate and has the second-best ISO on the team against southpaws (.278).
Who is number one? That’ll be rookie sensation Mark Vientos (+340)! The rookie is 2-for-5 in his career against Corbin with a double and a triple. He has crushed left-handed pitching (.323 ISO) and has the most HR/PA (7%) among Mets with 20+ plate appearances.
You can also choose Francisco Lindor (+350), who has a career .317 average against Corbin with three home runs. Aside from Brandon Nimmo, Lindor is the hottest hitter in this Mets lineup. He's hitting .317 with a .945 OPS over the past 15 days.
From All-Star snub to potential MVP? Can the Lindor revenge tour continue in a plus matchup?
The wind is blowing out heavy to center field for the Mets here in a game where we may see the New York offense tee off once again against the lowly Corbin.
Other Notes
- Despite 12-mile-per-hour winds out to center in Detroit tonight, 68-degree temperatures and potential rainstorms project a -12.3% decrease in home runs, per RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge system (73-game sample).
- Despite struggling over the last few weeks (.195 average), Juan Soto has been hitting the ball in the air at a near-50% rate. He also happens to be on an upswing regarding his rolling hard-hit graph. Zach Eflin has long been a home-run-prone pitcher, with five allowed in his last five starts. Soto is 13-for-28 (.464) with two home runs in his career off Eflin.
- The weather report calls for 13 mph out toward left field in Boston on Wednesday. The Green Monster may have something to say about the increase in home runs, but RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge projects a +7.7% increase in home runs. Oakland starter JP Sears is no stranger to the deep ball (career 1.47 HR/9).
- Nolan Arenado battles against Michael Wacha on Wednesday in the second game of the Royals-Cardinals double-header. Arenado is 8-for-15 in his career off Wacha with four home runs. RotoGrinders projects a +14.9% home run increase based on a 116-game sample size of similar conditions.
