MLB season has arrived! Let's dive into a few notes, stats and trends, but more importantly, some betting systems we can follow along with through the regular season.
From moneylines to run lines to over/unders, let's dive into it all right now.
Rangers Make History
Only four teams in the last 32 years have won the World Series with 30-1 odds or longer entering the regular season, including the Texas Rangers last season at 50-1 odds.
Rangers had the third-highest odds in the Wild Card era behind just the 1991 Twins (80-1) and 2003 Marlins (75-1).
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Chalky Start
The Orioles are -180 favorites over the Angels on Opening Day. It would be their biggest favorite spot in their opener since 1998.
Orioles Biggest Opening Day Favorite Last 30 Years
- -220, 1998
- -180, 1999
- -160, 1996
- -149, 2005
Time For Vegas
Over the last 25 years, the A's are the only franchise to have a win total below 60 more than once — they've done it now in consecutive years (59.5 last year, went under). Six of the nine lowest win totals went over their preseason total — the three teams to go under were last season's A's, the 2019 Orioles and 2013 Astros.
In 162 games last year, the A's managed to be listed as the favorite in only three of their first 161 total games — being listed as the favorite in their last game of the year against the Angels.
Removing the 2020 Orioles (four games as favorite) and Pirates (one game as favorite) from the list due to the COVID-shortened season, the 2023 A’s joined just the 2006 Royals for fewest games as a favorite since 2005.
Dirty Dozen
The Phillies have gone 12 consecutive seasons losing money on the moneyline for their bettors. Their last profitable season came back in 2011. The next closest streak to Philly is the Angels at six straight losing seasons.
Turn Around Reds
Betting against the Reds has been a cash machine … until last season. A $100 bettor won $1,068 last year on the moneyline betting the Reds, their first year in the black since 2012.
Not In The Cards
The Cardinals are +190 underdogs vs. the Dodgers on Opening Day. It would be their biggest underdog opener underdog spot since at least 1977.
Cardinals Biggest Opening Day Underdog Since Expansion in 1977
- +161, 2012
- +150, 1989
- +150, 1977
- +140, 1984
Buyer Beware
A simple question: How do big favorites perform on the run line?
We started seeing big favorites really in 2017 — since that year, we've seen 323 games with one side closing as a -300 favorite or higher. Those teams are 188-135 (58%) on the run line, losing a $100 bettor $1,806 for a -5.6% ROI.
Of those six seasons since 2017, only one produced a profitable season for big favorites on the run line.
With home teams struggling and the public down on their luck last season, big favorites also had a tough campaign.
Teams with a moneyline of -200 or higher finished 297-155 (65.7%) with a $100 bettor down $3,277, the worst year for big favorites since 2005. The second worst? Two years ago in 2022, losing a $100 bettor $1,421.
Wrigley Wind
Unders at Wrigley Field are 760-683-70 (52.7%) overall, including 53.9% to the under in the last decade of play. When betting at Wrigley, the important thing to note is wind direction. Here's the under by wind direction over the last decade:
Take a look at our Wrigley Field "PRO System" available for PRO users on the web and in the Action App. This takes into consideration the total, wind speed and direction filters.
Rare Dogs
The Yankees are underdogs vs. the Astros on Opening Day. It's just the third time since 2005 that New York is a betting underdog on Opening Day and the first time since 2016.
When the Yanks have been set at a short price on Opening Day, they have struggled. As an underdog or favorite of -140 or shorter, New York is 0-6 on the moneyline on Opening Day since 2005.
Great Expectations
With the newly added wild-card teams in the playoff field, we've now had back-to-back years where teams with 90-plus win totals missed the playoffs.
2023: Yankees (94.5), Padres (93.5), Mets (92.5)
2022: White Sox (92.5), Brewers (90.5)
You have to go all the way back to 2003-04 to find five different teams with a win total of 90 or more miss the playoffs in consecutive years. Plus, the Yankees missing with a win total of 94.5 puts them on a shortlist.
Highest Win Totals to Miss Playoffs since 1996:
- 2011 Red Sox: 95.5
- 2002 Mariners: 95.5
- 2023 Yankees: 94.5
- 2021 Padres: 94.5
- 2019 Red Sox: 94.5
- 2010 Red Sox: 94.5
Two 93-Plus Win Totals Miss Playoffs Same Season:
- 2023: NYY, SD
- 2008: DET, NYM, NYY
Guaranteed Under
In the Bet Labs database, which team is the most profitable for unders in day games? That would be the Chicago White Sox and Guaranteed Rate Field.
In White Sox home games before 4 p.m. ET, the under is 261-187-20 (58.3%). A $100 bettor would be up $6,016 for a +12.9% ROI.
Over the last three seasons, the under has gone 49-30-3 in day games at Guaranteed Rate Field. The under in day games on the South Side have been .500 or better for nine consecutive years.
Zebra Rundown
We wouldn’t recommend placing a wager solely based on an umpire, but it is important to know who’s behind the plate so bettors can exploit pronounced tendencies. Here are the most profitable umpires to the over and under over the last five seasons.
Over: Edwin Moscoso (69-38-5), Alfonso Marquez (81-58-4), Carlos Torres (73-55-2)
Under: Andy Fletcher (70-43-5), Rob Drake (69-43-6), Roberto Ortiz (66-42-7)
Under The Cap
How about this stat: The over hasn't been profitable in any Rockies single season in the last eight years — the last time being 2015.
From 2016-23, the under is 624-528-47 (54.2%) — in that span, they're the most profitable team to the under by a large margin. Rockies unders have profited a bettor $5,903 in that span, the second-most is the Brewers at $3,529.
What about the Rockies at home in Coors Field? The under is 308-270-20 since 2016 in Coors — a 3.7% ROI for under bettors, second-best to only the Cubs at Wrigley.
Start Fast
Looking for some love on Opening Day?
The Mariners and Mets are 30-9 straight up combined in their first games of the season since 2005. Seattle has won four in a row and is 6-1 in its last seven, and New York is 6-1 in its last seven openers.
Across The Globe
Since 2015, the first five innings over has been profitable in Rangers home games each and every season.
What started in Globe Life Park in Arlington and is now taking place at Globe Life Field, the first five innings over is 385-271-32 (58.7%) in Rangers home games over the last nine seasons, making Texas the most profitable first five innings over team in that span by almost $5,000 on a $100 wager.
Not Worth The Squeeze
It might be tough to swallow, but the tip is don't buy into the juice. When offenses are averaging five runs per game or more in a team's first 20 games of the season, they are 432-442 on the moneyline.
But with the juice, a $100 bettor would be down $7,503 (-8.6% ROI). If you faded each of those teams, you would be up $4,523 for a 5.2% ROI.
Bank of Baltimore
What a season the Orioles had last year. They won the AL East for the first time since 2014 and just the third time since 1985. Not only that, but they were also very profitable for their bettors.
- The Orioles ended the season 101-61 on the moneyline, profiting a $100 bettor $2,824.
- Over the last two seasons, an Orioles bettor has made a $100 bettor $5,281.
Only one team in the Bet Labs database, which goes back to 2005, has had a better two-year stretch for bettors than the 2022-23 Orioles, and that was the Texas Rangers in 2015-16, profiting bettors $5,283 on a $100 bet.
Speaking of the Orioles, can Dean Kremer keep it up? Over the last two seasons, he's 37-17 on the moneyline, profiting a $100 bettor $2,046 — almost $1,000 more than any other pitcher in baseball in that span.
Home Insurance
Can home teams bounce back? They finished last season 1,261-1,161 on the moneyline, with a $100 bettor down $13,649 (a -5.6% ROI).
Dating back to 2005, which is the entirety of our Bet Labs database (which explains that date used a few times in this article), that's the least profitable year for home teams in that span on the moneyline.
The 1,261 home wins on the moneyline last year are the fewest since at least 2005, and from the official MLB stat department, it marked the fewest home wins overall in a season since 1999.
Streaking
Let's look at win total streaks. The Dodgers cashed their win total over last year, making it five straight seasons going over the total, the longest over streak in MLB.
While in the same state, the Angels haven't been so lucky. They went under their win total again last year for the sixth time in a row, the longest active streak in all of baseball.
New Direction
Another streak for the Angels, except this one comes to an end.
Out Of Nowhere
What the Nationals did last season was remarkable from a betting perspective.
Washington finished second in moneyline profitability behind just the Orioles. Over the last 25 years, five MLB teams have had a win total below 60. Washington was the only one to turn a profit for bettors.
Here is how they've performed on the moneyline based on a $100 wager:
- 2023 Nationals (59.5 win total · +$1,316 · 69-91)
- 2023 Athletics (59.5 win total · -$3,171 · 50-112)
- 2021 Pirates (58.5 win total · -$1,211 · 61-101)
- 2019 Orioles (58.5 win total · -$1,801 · 54-108)
- 2013 Astros (59.5 win total · -$2,468 · 51-101)
Torch Passing
Adam Wainwright officially signed his retirement papers last year and walked away from the game.
He ends his career 258-168 on the moneyline between the regular season and postseason. A $100 bettor would be up $4,065, making him the most profitable starting pitcher in the Bet Labs database.
Only two pitchers are even within $1,500 of him: Chris Tillman and Mark Buehrle.
The most profitable pitcher on the moneyline among actives? Max Fried at 92-42, up $2,601 on a $100 bet.
System Time
Let's now take a look at some Bet Labs betting systems to track and follow throughout the year:
This system looks at betting contrarian in MLB against the best teams in the league. The focus is a team under .500 on the moneyline on a losing streak, facing an above-average team.
In interleague play, road underdogs have shown themselves to be profitable on the moneyline recently.
They have a win percentage of just 43.2%, but those teams have turned a 3.5% ROI for bettors since 2016 and have been profitable in five of the last six seasons.
Never assume teams bounce back after a loss, especially favorites. High win percentage favorites in the second game of a series or later coming off a loss are just 551-692 (44.3%) on the run line over the last decade for a -6% ROI.
If the first game of a series was low-scoring, keep betting the under. Over the last six years, this has produced a +8.5% ROI, profitable in all six seasons.
Here's our new PRO System on "high strikeout pitchers," where you're looking to bet unders when these two types of starting pitchers face off.
The system performs better about 20-30 games into the regular season as statistics level out.
All MLB Bet Labs data goes back to 2005 | Historical odds history via Sports Odds History.
