One of the most popular promotions in the sports betting community is back: MLB Dinger Tuesday from FanDuel.
The promotion allows a user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether the player you bet on homers, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25 for the game.
Many users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum $25 back in free bets — essentially five free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were higher limits, usually $50, on the return in free bets for players.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2023 was 2.20, you will receive an average of $12 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run "yes" prop.
If you aren't limited, you should play as many games as you’re comfortable with because the promo is still plus-EV for most of the board. If you are limited to the maximum return of $25, an average of two to three games will return your $25 maximum in free bets.
Note: It could take just one game to reach the $25 ceiling if there are five homers in that game.
Here are my three favorite MLB home run prop picks and Dinger Tuesday predictions for June 25.
MLB Home Run Bets: Dinger Tuesday Picks (June 25)
There's a moderate risk of a rainout and/or delay in this one, but given that we can usually get (or get very close to) maximizing the bonus on just one game, this one is worth taking a chance on.
That's because it's projecting for the most homers of any game on the slate at 3.63, largely thanks to Great American Ball Park boosting home runs by 24% — the best rate in the league.
The weather is also providing another 25% or so boost — according to the WeatherEdge tool from our friends at RotoGrinders — so expect the ball to fly tonight.
I like targeting the Pirates in this one thanks to the pitching matchup. Reds starter Hunter Greene has a 46.6% fly-ball rate, about 10% more than the Pirates Keller. He's been lucky this year with a 7.8% HR/FB rate, especially considering his home ball park and how hard he throws. His fastball averages over 98 mph, and typically harder thrown balls fly farther.
McCutchen is projecting as the best edge in our models, which place his fair line around +340. He's transformed himself into a power hitter in recent years, and has a career-best 13.4% barrel rate in 2024. He hits righties better than lefties, and as the leadoff hitter for the visiting team, he should see as many at-bats as any player in this game.
Digging even deeper, the two pitches McCutchen hits the best have been fastballs (1.3 runs above average) and sliders (5.3) — the two pitches that Greene throws 98% of the time.
With two of the three games we're targeting today having some form of weather risk, I wanted to include at least one that we know will play through.
Milwaukee plays indoors so we should be safe from rain — and American Family Field is also a top-five park for home runs, with a 15% boost.
Both pitchers in this game have above-average fly-ball rates on the season, though they're average-to-good in terms of hard hit and barrel rates. However, something stood out when looking at Brewers starter Bryse Wilson's numbers.
Namely, he's awful against lefties. Left-handed hitters have a .917 OPS against Wilson this season, with seven home runs in 28 innings. Against righties, he's allowed just five home runs in 40 innings — exactly half the rate.
That narrows our search considerably to Rangers lefties, but fortunately there are a few options.
I'm going with Corey Seager, the likeliest Ranger to go yard (both in our projections and by betting markets). It's chalky, and truthfully not a great price, but FanDuel has the best line in the market on Seager.
With this game expected to provide roughly $15 back in bonus bets, it's worth getting exposure through the "safest" (as much as any home run prop is safe) option, even if he's projecting a bit worse than the current line.
This is another game that has a risk of being rained out, but weather conditions extremely favorable for home runs if the game plays. That's probably not a coincidence — the ball faces less air resistance in humid air.
Either way, we have the best offense in baseball in the Dodgers playing in conditions that boost home runs 33%, making them a fairly obvious team to target.
Chris Flexen is another pitcher who struggles against lefties, with seven homers allowed through 26 innings. That doesn't seem to be just noise, either, as he allows more fly balls and hard contact as well.
While we wouldn't have to exclusively target Dodgers lefties — Flexen is bad in general — it's a solid way to narrow the search.
The obvious choice would be Shohei Ohtani, but it's hard for any hitter to justify +176 odds to hit a home run. My favorite choice considering the odds is Freeman, with FanDuel having the best line in the market.
Freeman has 11 home runs on the season but probably should have more, with a 10.8% HR/FB ratio that's well below his career average of 16.2%. While he's seen slight declines in his hard hit and barrel rates, those are more or less in line with his career numbers.
Given the conditions in Chicago tonight, it's a good time for some of that regression to strike.
