I'm on five home run props for Wednesday's full MLB slate, targeting the following games: Reds vs Phillies, Astros vs Twins, White Sox vs Mariners, Mets vs Nationals and Athletics vs Angels.
Read on for my Home Run Picks and find out why I'm on JJ Bleday, Yordan Alvarez, Julio Rodriguez, Mark Vientos and Mike Trout.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:05 PM | |
  | 1:40 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 6:45 PM | |
  | 9:38 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Editor's Note: A home run parlay is not the author's formal recommendation. These home run picks have value as straight bets.
Reds vs Phillies Home Run Pick
JJ Bleday has been incredible to start the season, and the underlying numbers look like the power is for real.
This is a great spot, as the ballpark is one of the best in the league for lefty power, the weather should be great (temperatures in the 90s and wind blowing out to right at 10 mph), and the Phillies' Aaron Nola is an absolute gas can for lefty power.
Nola has been absolutely crushed by lefties in recent years, and he gave up a massive 2.21 HR/9 to lefties last season.
I have the true odds here for the Reds LF around +300, making this a great bet.
Pick: JJ Bleday Home Run
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Astros vs Twins Home Run Pick
The weather won't be great, but the odds and the matchup more than make up for it.
Yordan Alvarez is one of the best home run hitters in the league, and Joe Ryan is a gas can for lefty power.
The Twins SP is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with above-average splits. He has been better at suppressing power, but he has historically been a plus matchup.
I have the true odds here around +350.
Pick: Yordan Alvarez Home Run
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White Sox vs Mariners Home Run Pick
J-Rod has been in great form recently, and this spot is solid. Sean Burke isn't a bad pitcher, but the White Sox starter has struggled heavily with righty power in his career (1.31 HR/9).
This ballpark isn't great, but the Seattle CF has been in great form over the last month, and when Rodriguez gets hot, he tends to stay hot.
I have the true odds here under +450, making this an excellent bet.
Pick: Julio Rodriguez Home Run
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Mets vs Nationals Home Run Pick
Mark Vientos isn't a huge HR hitter, but this spot is fantastic.
Zack Littell has been the best home run matchup in the league this season, and even though the Nats SP has only allowed a 1.35 HR/9 to righties, he's due for negative regression and has historically been a reverse-splits pitcher.
I have the true odds here for the Mets 1B around +350.
Pick: Mark Vientos Home Run
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Athletics vs Angels Home Run Pick
Mike Trout finally broke his slump yesterday, and I'm going right back to the well tonight.
A's starter Aaron Civale is a reverse-splits pitcher who has allowed a career 1.35 HR/9 to righties and grades out as an even better matchup.
The weather should be around average in Anaheim, and I have the true odds here under +300, making this a great bet.
Pick: Mike Trout Home Run
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