Happy Dinger Tuesday!
Read on for my nine MLB Home Run Picks Today for Tuesday, July 28, including picks for Braves vs Mets, Yankees vs White Sox and Astros vs Angels.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 6:45 PM | |
  | 7:10 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
  | 9:38 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Orioles vs Tigers HR Pick
This is a great spot for Kevin McGonigle, and these odds are far too high.
Dean Kremer has been a gas can for lefty power this season, allowing a massive 3.26 HR/9.
While he's due for some positive regression, he's historically been a great matchup for lefty power.
I have the true odds here around +450, making this a great bet.
Pick: Kevin McGonigle Home Run (+525)
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Rangers vs Rays HR Pick
This is strictly a price play. Griffin Jax has been an above-average matchup for righty power this season (1.41 HR/9), but this ballpark is well below average.
I have the true odds here at +450, making this a great bet.
Pick: Jake Burger Home Run (+575)
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Blue Jays vs Nationals HR Pick
This is a great spot, and these odds are far too high.
Shane Bieber is not the same pitcher he used to be and has been a gas can for power this season.
Bieber has been worse to righties than lefties, but he's still allowed a 1.59 HR/9 to lefties this season.
James Wood is one of the best HR hitters in the league, and I have the true odds here around +250, making this a great bet.
Pick: James Wood Home Run (+350)
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Braves vs Mets HR Pick
The rain is a concern here, but I'm guessing the game plays, and these odds are too high.
Christian Scott has been good this season, but he's been an above-average matchup for lefty power (1.33 HR/9) and grades out as an even better matchup.
Olson is one of the best power hitters in the league, and I have the true odds here around +270, making this a great bet.
Pick: Matt Olson Home Run (+301)
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Yankees vs White Sox HR Pick
This is a great spot for the White Sox lefties, and these odds are a bit too high.
Gerrit Cole isn't the same pitcher he used to be, and he's struggled heavily with lefty power this season (1.96 HR/9).
While he's due for some positive regression, he still grades out as a matchup that is well above average for lefty power.
I have the true odds here around +250, making this a great bet.
Pick: Colson Montgomery Home Run (+321)
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Astros vs Angels HR Pick
This is a plus spot, and these odds are far too high.
Peter Lambert isn't a bad pitcher, but he's been reverse splits when it comes to power, allowing a 1.66 HR/9 to righties this season (and a career 1.68 HR/9 to righties).
Jo Adell is having an off season, but the power and swing speed is there.
I have the true odds here under +400, making this a great bet.
Pick: Jo Adell Home Run (+436)
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