We have a 15-game slate on tap this Monday, courtesy of Padres vs Braves, Tigers vs Cubs, and plenty more options on the menu for tonight.
Read on for my three MLB home run picks and predictions for Monday, July 20.
MLB Home Run Picks for Monday, July 20
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:15 PM | |
| 8:05 PM | |
| 8:05 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Padres vs. Braves MLB Player Prop: Manny Machado Home Run
Manny Machado Home Run (+525)
This is a good spot, and these odds are far too high.
Bryce Elder has reverse splits when it comes to power, allowing a high 1.60 HR/9 to righties since the beginning of last season.
Machado isn't the same hitter he used to be, but I have the true odds projected under +400 here, making this a solid bet.
Pick: Manny Machado Home Run (+525)
Tigers vs. Cubs MLB Player Prop: Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run
Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run (+245)
Jack Flaherty has been good at suppressing power this season, but he's due for some heavy regression and grades out as a plus-matchup for both lefty and righty power.
The weather in Chicago should be incredible for hitting, with temps in the mid-80s and wind blowing out at 16 mph.
PCA is one of the best HR hitters in the league, and I have the true odds here around +200, giving us decent value at +245.
Pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run (+245)
White Sox vs Rangers MLB Player Prop: Colson Montgomery Home Run
Colson Montgomery Home Run (+375)
Jacob deGrom isn't the same pitcher he used to be and struggles heavily with lefty power at this point in his career.
He is surrendering 1.50 HR/9 this season to lefties after allowing a 1.34 HR/9 last season.
Montgomery is one of the best HR hitters in the league, and I have the true odds here projected around +320, making this another excellent bet.
