Baseball betting is one of a kind. Diving into a full MLB slate every day is grueling, and sometimes, edges are nowhere to be found with a side or total.
But there are always opportunities to fade pitchers.
One of the areas I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases & home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there are always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are almost always plus-money, and home run props can often reach the +700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s.
In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot — though it's important to note the rarity of hitting that feat. Like slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers.
Today's lottery ticket comes with +9360 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
MLB Home Run & Total Base Props
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vs. White Sox, 2:10 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Nick Nastrini (RHP)
One of the hottest hitters in baseball, Vlad Guerrero Jr. put aside a slow start to the season and has responded with a .407 average in May. While he hasn’t been hitting for as much power — just two home runs — he has become one of the hardest outs in baseball.
The underlying metrics are eye-popping. He ranks in the 99th percentile in hard-hit rate (58.6%) and is barreling the ball at the highest rate since 2021. It’s only a matter of time before a power surge comes, as his xSLG (.504) remains nearly 80 points higher than actual (.427).
He draws a great matchup on Monday night against right-hander Nick Nastrini. Guerrero’s OPS is actually higher against righties (.829) than lefties (.778). Tack on the weather at Guaranteed Rate Field on Monday, and we could see home runs galore.
The wind is blowing out 14 miles per hour to the deep center. Based on RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge tool, we can expect a +37.7% increase in home runs.
Nastrini is a top prospect for the White Sox. But in his limited starts, the right-hander has been battered. He isn’t striking out many batters and has dealt with plenty of control issues. He’s walked 11 batters over his last two starts (6 1/3 innings) and is a primarily fly-ball pitcher.
The command problems have led to a low chase rate and thus, a low strikeout rate (12.7%) in the early going. Even in Triple-A, Nastrini gave up 2.76 HR/9 through six starts.
We have finally seen Guerrero correct a cold April with a dominant May.
Pick: Vlad Guerrero to hit a Home Run (+320, BetMGM)
Ryan McMahon (Rockies)
Vs. Guardians, 4:10 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Xzavion Curry (RHP)
It’s the highest total on the board, so you know we have to find someone here to hit a home run.
It’s a great matchup for both offenses, with both pitchers sporting a near-double-digit barrel rate.
I’m going to attack Xzavion Curry, who has escaped inevitable damage through his first two starts.
Curry is a fly-ball pitcher and one who is often tattooed. He's allowing a 58% hard-hit rate, and his xSLG (.593) has skyrocketed compared to last season. It's a small sample size, but even when you look back to his Triple-A numbers, Curry's posted an 8.79 ERA and 3.45 HR/9 in 28 1/3 innings this year.
Curry gives up a lot of fly balls and rarely strikes out the opposition. Now he heads to Coors Field, where pitchers are at a disadvantage, against a Rockies offense that is swinging the ball well.
I’ll take my chances with Colorado here.
Ryan McMahon has been nothing short of impressive in 2024. He’s finally having the breakout season he was capable of, with 10 home runs and a .294 average through the first two months of the season.
The lefty slugger ranks inside the top 3% of all hitters in hard-hit rate (55.7%) and boasts career-best numbers in barrels (15%), xBA (.289), and xSLG (.530) while dropping his strikeout rate over 7%.
Gaudy numbers are coming for McMahon and he’s become a split-proof hitter. Looking at his rolling fly-ball and hard-hit rate graphs show that he’s hitting the ball in the air much more of late — and still extremely hard.
Over the last 15 days, McMahon has five home runs. This power surge is not an illusion and against a home run-prone righty on Monday, I’ll happily back him here.
Pick: Ryan McMahon to hit a Home Run (+525, BetMGM)
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Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers)
Vs. Mets, 4:10 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Tylor Megill (RHP)
There’s a chance this game gets rained out, but the price is just too absurd not to take.
Compared to the rest of the market, FanDuel’s +330 for Shohei Ohtani is a must-dabble for me.
Ohtani ranks in the 100th percentile of all hitters in xBA and xSLG, and the 99th percentile in barrel (19.2%) and hard-hit rate (59.3%). We asked what could happen in a full year just focusing on hitting, and Ohtani has responded with even more video-game-like numbers. He has 13 home runs and a career-best .336 average.
Tylor Megill takes the mound for the Mets and he, like many other pitchers I’m looking to fade, gives up a ton of fly balls. It’s only been two starts, but Megill has been barreled 14.3% of the time — yet he has still not given up a home run.
In his career, Megill allows closer to 1.3-1.4 homers per nine innings, so regression is coming. He throws his four-seam fastball over 50% of the time and it’s been an issue for the right-hander. Last year, opponents had a near-.500 slugging percentage against it.
I don’t know if I have to add much more when it comes to backing Ohtani. After a slow couple of weeks, the Dodgers offense finds themselves in a good situation to scrap together a couple of home runs and get the ball rolling against a home-run-prone Megill.
Expect Ohtani to be chief among the benefactors, so long as he isn’t pitched around.
Pick: Shohei Ohtani to hit a Home Run (+330), FanDuel
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Monday, May 27th
- Vlad Guerrero Jr.
- Ryan McMahon
- Shohei Ohtani
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $936.
