Baseball betting is one of a kind. Diving into a full MLB slate every day is grueling, and sometimes, edges are nowhere to be found with a side or total. But there are always opportunities to fade pitchers.
One of the areas I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases and home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there are always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are almost always plus-money, and home run props can often reach the +700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total base props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot — though it's important to note the rarity of hitting that feat. Like slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason. But if you're feeling confident and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers.
Today's lottery ticket comes with +12780 odds.
Read below for my three MLB home run props for Friday, June 14.
MLB Home Run Props: Friday, June 14
- Vlad Guerrero Jr. (+500)
- Oneil Cruz (+360)
- Matt Chapman (+400)
Parlay Odds: +12780
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Opposing Pitcher: Logan Allen
Back to the well with Vlad Guerrero Jr. we go. The underlying metrics on the 25-year-old are extremely promising and the matchup against left-hander Logan Allen should lend itself to a great home run environment.
Guerrero Jr. ranks in the top 1% of all hitters in hard-hit rate (58.9%) and has actually underperformed expectations to date. Both his xBA (.298) and xSLG (.489) are much higher than actual (.281, .408) and we’ve even seen a slight increase in barrel rate in 2024.
The Blue Jays offense in general has largely struggled but Guerrero has been impressive against left-handed pitching. He has a 122 wRC+ and a negative K-BB rate. Other than Davis Schneider, Guerrero is the only other Blue Jay with multiple home runs against a southpaw.
Allen takes the mound for Cleveland and his numbers have taken a turn for the worse in 2024. His barrel rate has jumped over 2% this season and his hard-hit rate has neared 50%. He isn’t generating many whiffs, either.
He has also been burned by the long ball of late. In his last three starts, Allen has given up five home runs. Of his 13 starts this season, he has given up 2+ home runs 43% of the time.
Pick: Vlad Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+500, BetMGM)
Opposing Pitcher: Ryan Feltner
If you want to talk about home run or bust, look no further than Oneil Cruz. The 6-foot-7 Pirates shortstop ranks in the top 2% of all hitters in average exit velocity, barrel rate and bat speed. He also strikes out at a near-33% rate.
But a great matchup presents itself on Friday night against right-hander Ryan Feltner. In general, Cruz has crushed right-handed pitching. He has seven home runs and a 43% extra-base hit rate.
He also heads to the No. 1 hitters park in Coors Field in terms of park factor. Coors is 10th in home-run rate, too.
Last season Feltner was able to limit home runs (0.42) but his career average — and projections in general — have Feltner closer in the mid-1s. He doesn’t strike out many batters and features a below-average fastball. He is about league average in hard-hit rate allowed.
Obviously it’s a small sample size but Cruz is 2-for-3 with a home run against Feltner, who has largely struggled against left-handed hitters. In general this season, his OPS jumps up to .872 vs. .718 when facing righties.
Pick: Oneil Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+360 FanDuel)
Opposing Pitcher: Tyler Anderson
Tyler Anderson is among the luckiest pitchers in baseball and negative regression is looming large.
The left-hander’s xERA (4.66) is over two runs higher than actual (2.63), and he ranks in the bottom 20% of all pitchers in barrels and ground ball rate. Anderson has really benefitted from a .218 BABIP and career-best 86.6 strand rate.
Even when you compare his underlying metrics year over year, Anderson has a worse barrel rate (9.8%), xSLG (.457) and hard-hit rate (36.1%) than last season. His ERA in 2023? Nearly three runs higher at 5.43.
Matt Chapman is a southpaw killer. He has a 191 wRC+ and is hitting .349 against lefties. While he has just a pair of home runs, he has an OPS over 1.000 and a 55% extra base hit rate. Chapman’s barrel rate in general remains in double digits and he’s inside the top 10% of all hitters in average exit velocity.
Despite being in the 60s temperature-wise in San Francisco, the wind is blowing over 20 miles an hour to left center field. Based on a 170-game sample, there should be a +13% increase in home runs hit tonight.
If you would rather opt for a different Giants player, Heliot Ramos is also a great look (.577 ISO, 292 wRC+). It’s only a matter of time before Anderson gets spurned on the mound.
Pick: Matt Chapman to Hit a Home Run (+400, FanDuel)
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets: Friday, June 14
- Vlad Guerrero Jr. (+500)
- Oneil Cruz (+360)
- Matt Chapman (+400)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $1,278.
