MLB Home Run & Total Base Props
Baseball betting is one of a kind. Diving into a full MLB slate every day is grueling, and sometimes, edges are nowhere to be found with a side or total. But there are always opportunities to fade pitchers.
One of the areas I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases and home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there are always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are almost always plus-money, and home run props can often reach the +700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total base props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot — though it's important to note the rarity of hitting that feat. Like slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason. But if you're feeling confident and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's Triple 7s come in at +24062 odds.
Read below for my three MLB home run props for Monday, June 24.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Opposing Pitcher: Bailey Falter
We start in the friendly confines of Great American Ball Park and, you guessed it, we’re fading Bailey Falter again.
Falter’s xERA (5.17) is nearly a run and a half higher than actual, and he’s been able to mitigate damage despite pitching to contact. But it’s only a matter of time before negative regression strikes. Falter ranks in the 13th percentile among qualified pitchers in both strikeout and whiff rate.
The southpaw has benefitted from pitching at PNC Park, which ranks 25th in Home Run Factor, per Baseball Savant. Falter does not limit hard contact, and he isn’t a ground ball pitcher. That means a healthy dose of balls in play, normally in the air.
Take away PNC and insert Great American, and this could be a fun offensive day for the Reds. Great American ranks in the top five in Park Factor and tops in Home Run Factor.
That brings me to Spencer Steer, who is turning a corner after a cold start to the season. In the month of June, Steer is hitting .273 with a .733 OPS. He also happens to rank first on the Reds in both wRC+ (137) and isolated power (.230) against left-handed pitching. He also ranks second in the majors in wRC+ against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days (302 wRC+, 20 PA).
Steer has two seasons of sustained success against left-handed pitching after he led the Reds in home runs against southpaws in 2023 as well (143 wRC+). This is a great matchup for Steer, who is 5-for-8 with a home run in his career against Falter.
Falter has benefitted from a .242 BABIP, but the home run issues remain (1.36 HR/9). In his career, the left-hander has a 1.62 HR/9.
Pick: Spencer Steer to Hit a Home Run (+375, BetMGM)
Opposing Pitcher: James Paxton
James Paxton takes the mound after logging back-to-back quality starts, but I am of the belief this has been nothing more than a facade.
On Monday night, I’m looking to buy the White Sox in many ways, and that includes the home run market.
Paxton’s xERA (4.64) is a full run higher than actual (3.65), and his xFIP is over 1.5 runs higher (5.18). Paxton has benefitted from a .237 BABIP and has seen his home run rate drop significantly compared to the last four seasons he’s logged in the bigs.
He's also a pitch-to-contact southpaw. Paxton has struggled with his command (11.8 BB%) from limited chases and minimal strikeouts (15.4%). He is a below-average arm by all accounts (74 Stuff+) and has struggled if you pull back the curtains.
So now we get to bet the White Sox! Is it gross? Yes, it is. But that also means we can find value, and I circled Andrew Vaughn from Chicago, though I wouldn’t blame you for going with Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez or even Tommy Pham.
Over the last 30 days against left-handed pitching, Vaughn has posted a 160 wRC+. While the power hasn’t fully come, Vaughn does rank in the 75th percentile in average exit velocity and is due for some positive regression, per his underlying metrics.
Vaughn’s xSLG (.447) is much higher than actual (.382), and we’ve seen him increase his barrel rate (8.9%) from last season. This is also one of the hottest hitters in the White Sox lineup, hitting .309 over the last month with a .831 OPS.
Pick: Andrew Vaughn to Hit a Home Run (+430 FanDuel)
Opposing Pitcher: Patrick Corbin
Something happened in the offseason for Jurickson Profar. I don’t think he bit by a spider and developed superhuman reflexes, but a career .245 hitter has arguably become the best hitter in this stacked Padres lineup.
Profar also draws a great matchup on Monday night when Patrick Corbin takes the mound for the Nationals. The southpaw Corbin ranks in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in xBA (.322) and does not generate strikeouts (15.2%) either. His xERA somehow has gotten worse from last season, sitting at 6.66.
This season against left-handed pitching, Profar has a .357 average and 1.020 OPS. He has as many home runs (5) against southpaws as he does against right-handed pitchers — in 105 less at-bats.
Here’s the kicker: over the last 30 days against left-handed pitching, Profar has a 250 wRC+, which ranks seventh in all of baseball. As you may have guessed, Profar is the best on the team in both wRC+ (194) and ISO (.214) over the entire course of the season against lefties. He also has an 8.2% strikeout rate.
It’s never a bad idea to fade Corbin, who continues to struggle. He’s strung together a pair of good starts, but he’s gotten a bit lucky based on batted balls and the defense behind him. His xERA remains a full run higher than actual for a reason.
You could opt for Manny Machado or Fernando Tatis Jr., if he returns, but I like taking a stab at a longer shot with Profar. He is one of the hardest hitters to strike out in that Padres lineup — alongside Luis Arraez — and has seen all his numbers immensely improve. I’ll likely look to play his total bases as well.
Pick: Jurickson Profar to Hit a Home Run (+870, FanDuel)
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets: Monday, June 24
- Spencer Steer (+375)
- Andrew Vaughn (+430)
- Jurickson Profar (+870)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $2,406.20.
