Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remain a constant. One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not plus-money, and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player o1.5 TBs (.5u) and to hit a HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +9100 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals, 7:05 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin (LHP)
Happy Patrick Corbin Day to all who celebrate.
Corbin gave up a home run to Mookie Betts in his first at-bat but was able to mitigate damage otherwise. He remains a fade candidate every time he takes the mound given his concerning 6.11 xERA and .521 xSLG.
While the left-hander has shored up his barrel rate slightly (8.8%) — his lowest since the 2020 COVID-19 year — he remains in the bottom 15% of all pitchers in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and xBA (.316, bottom 2%).
He struggles to strike out opponents and generate swings and misses all while having good control.
Corbin’s walk rate is the lowest it’s been since 2018. Walks rarely become an issue and the southpaw pitches to contact, which is a bad recipe with declining velocity and a sinker that has been teed off on in 2023 (.342 xBA, .537 xSLG).
That brings me to Christian Walker, who has a 171 wRC+ against left-handed pitching and a team-best .396 ISO. He is a powerful bat in the middle of the Diamondbacks' lineup with an 8.9% barrel rate.
While Walker has seen his stats drop across the board in 2022, he remains in the top 1% of all hitters in outs above average and in the 95th percentile in max exit velocity. A lot of his struggles come against right-handed pitching (.239/.301/.409), while he’s dominant against lefties.
Of Walker’s 15 hits against southpaws, six have left the park. Another three have gone for extra bases. In other words, 60% of all hits have gone for extra bases against left-handed pitching.
I’m backing him at .5u to go over 1.5 total bases (-115) at bet365 and .1u to find the bleachers (+360) at FanDuel.
Pick: Christian Walker to Hit a HR |
Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers vs. Reds, 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Brandon Williamson (LHP)
Mookie Betts is one of the constants in DiSturco Triple 7s — and for good reason. His numbers across the board have skyrocketed from last season, and he’s swinging a hot bat atop the Dodgers lineup.
As I mentioned earlier, we took Betts against a lefty last week, and the same rings true today. He's one of the best Dodgers hitters against southpaws (160 wRC+) and has a .339 ISO.
Betts’ plate discipline is among MLB’s best. He ranks in the top 1% of all hitters in chase rate and owns a 14.3 BB%. But given his spot as the leadoff hitter ahead of the scary duo of Freddie Freeman and Will Smith, pitchers can’t be too cautious with Betts.
He has a 12.2 barrel percentage and an average exit velocity of 92.3 mph, a career best. His xSLG is his best mark since 2019, and like the aforementioned Walker, 60% of all hits against left-handed pitching have gone for extra bases.
Betts matches up with Brandon Williamson, who has been incredibly fortunate not to have been hit harder through his first four starts. His xERA is over two runs higher than actual ERA, and his barrel rate sits at a concerning 13.1%.
Williamson’s xSLG is .522 — bottom 6% of pitchers — and his hard-hit rate stands at 45.9%. He has given up a home run in three of his four starts. After 6.2 innings of three-run ball with two earned against Milwaukee, Williamson should struggle here against a way better Dodgers offense.
I am throwing .5u on Betts over 1.5 total bases (-110) at DraftKings and .1u on his HR prop (+310) at Caesars.
Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals vs. Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Jon Gray (RHP)
Another constant in DiSturco Triple 7s, Paul Goldschmidt has surprisingly been much better against right-handed pitching than left-handers this season. He’s hitting just shy of .300 with an OPS of .941.
This is a much larger sample size, too. Goldschmidt has hit nine of his 10 home runs against righties, and 45% of all his hits have gone for extra bases.
Goldschmidt’s numbers have taken a huge jump across the board from last season when he hit 35 home runs with a .981 OPS. His xSLG has considerably increased (.482 vs. .552), and his barrel rate has jumped nearly 3%. He’s walking more, striking out less and hitting the ball 2.5 mph harder on average.
When compared to all other hitters in MLB, Goldschmidt ranks in the top 5% in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xSLG and xwOBA. He’s also in the top 12% in barrel rate.
Jon Gray gets the start for Texas on Wednesday, and he’s a big negative regression candidate. His xERA (4.39) is nearly two runs higher than actual (2.50), and it’s come with alarmingly high numbers across the board.
He’s giving up a higher barrel rate (7.3%) from last season, and his xBA and xSLG have risen. Gray finished last year with a 3.96 ERA for comparison. His strikeout rate has seen a decrease of over 5% year over year, too.
All this is to say that I expect a higher-scoring game on Wednesday night in Arlington. I’m backing Goldschmidt to hit over 1.5 total bases (+125) at bet365 and .1u for him to hit a HR (+400) at FanDuel.
Pick: Paul Goldschmidt to Hit a HR |
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Day, Date
- Christian Walker (+360)
- Mookie Betts (+310)
- Paul Goldschmidt (+400)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $910.
