Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant. One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly and you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason. But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +22636 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Harrison Bader, New York Yankees
Nationals vs. Yankees 7:05 p.m. ET | Opposing starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore (LHP)
This is the perfect buy-low spot on Harrison Bader.
Over the last 15 days, Bader is hitting just .186. Amid the Yankees nine-game losing streak, has just one hit over his last six games. While the center fielder has struggled, this is a plus matchup against left-hander MacKenzie Gore.
Among those with consistent at-bats in the Yankees lineup, it’s actually Bader who has been most successful against southpaws. His ISO is .386 and he has a team-high 211 wRC+. Bader’s power skyrockets when facing lefties — his extra-base hit rate is 47.6% versus 15.6 against righties — and his OPS sits at 1.158.
In short, you want to bet Bader against left-handed pitching.
Gore’s underlying metrics are a bit of a concern. After starting the season strong, the second-year vet’s xERA has jumped to 5.02. He ranks in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in barrel rate and has given up five home runs in his last four games.
While the southpaw has seen his strikeout rate increase and walks decrease, his hard-hit rate remains a concern. His HR/FB rate is 16.9%.
I believe we’re getting good value on Bader here (+600) at FanDuel. He doesn’t strike out often and will rarely walk. While he isn’t the strongest player on the field, he crushes lefties. Bader should see 2-3 at-bats against Gore on Wednesday night.
Vlad Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays vs. Orioles, 7:05 p.m. ET | Opposing starting pitcher: Dean Kremer (RHP)
With his heating up over the last couple of weeks, I’m looking to back Vlad Guerrero Jr., who has seen his fly ball and hard-hit rate start to creep back up to peak levels in 2023.
Guerrero has had an interesting season. He seemingly played through injury, which zapped his power for nearly a month, and he has just 18 home runs in 122 games. But his underlying metrics suggest nothing has changed from last season.
In fact, Guerrero’s hard-hit rate has jumped 3% and his xBA (.302) and xSLG (.510) are the second-best of his career. He ranks in the top 5% of nearly every important hitter metric and his barrel rate is higher than last season, when he hit 32 home runs.
All this to say that I think the home run drought ends for Guerrero very soon, and we could very well see a week where he pours it on. Guerrero has just one home run in August.
Jack Flaherty was scratched for Dean Kremer after I placed the bet, but I still like Guerrero to find the outfield seats. Kremer ranks in the bottom 10% in xSLG and has a concerning 9.7 barrel% this season. He has run into HR issues all season long.
Despite being hit hard often, Kremer has escaped danger. His xERA is over a run higher than actual, and with a low chase rate and his hard-hit rate creeping back to 2021 (6.43 xERA), I expect him to struggle to end the season.
I love taking a stab at Guerrero, who continues to swing an impressive bat even if the direct results (.268 avg, .782 OPS) haven’t followed suit.
He is +550 at bet365 to hit a HR.
James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers vs. Guardians, 7:10 p.m. ET | Opposing starting pitcher: Xzavion Curry (RHP)
I was going to choose Mookie Betts here, but his odds are in the low +200 range. Instead, I’m choosing to buy low on rookie outfielder James Outman, whose underlying metrics suggest success is around the corner.
Over the last 15 days, Outman is hitting just .167, but he does have a pair of home runs. Looking at his rolling graphs, he took a steep decline in both fly ball and hard-hit rate in the middle of the season. But that has since been corrected and is on a sharp rise.
There should be plenty of runs in this Dodgers-Guardians game. The wind is blowing out double digits to dead center. Based on RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge tool, we should see an expected +19.9% increase in HRs and +21.4% in runs (113-game sample).
The odds on Betts and Max Muncy have been juiced down, but Outman’s odds remain too high. He is fourth on the team in ISO against right-handed pitching — .216, behind JD Martinez and the aforementioned Betts and Muncy — and has a 117 wRC+.
Xzavion Curry is a big-time negative regression candidate, too. The right-hander has a 3.24 ERA but his expected metrics sit in the high 4s, low 5s. Curry ranks in the bottom 10% in hard-hit rate and 2% in average exit velocity (91.9 mph). The issue with that? His fly ball rate is just shy of 50%.
So hitters are crushing the ball in the air — they just haven’t come to spurn the right-hander. Curry’s BABIP is .265 and his LOB% is 77.4. I expect those numbers to negatively regress in the immediate future.
Curry doesn’t strike out many batters — 16.9% — and he has plus command. All this combines into a plus matchup for Outman in a case where the weather is extremely conducive to home runs.
Outman is +480 to hit a HR at FanDuel.
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Wednesday, August 23rd
- Harrison Bader (+600)
- Vlad Guerrero Jr. (+550)
- James Outman (+480)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $2,263.60.
