For Wednesday, August 13, I'm on three MLB home run props: Cal Raleigh, Kyle Stowers, and Juan Soto.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Wednesday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Wednesday, August 13
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:35 p.m. | |
| 6:40 p.m. | |
| 7:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for Wednesday, August 13
Cal Raleigh Home Run (+280)
Mariners vs Orioles, 6:35 p.m. ET
Going hard on the Mariners' righties today, as the spot and odds are far too good to pass up.
Orioles' pitcher Trevor Rogers has been great at suppressing power this season, but he's due for some massive regression.
He has allowed nearly a 40% fly-ball rate, allowed a 36% hard-contact rate, and struck out righties at only a 22% clip.
He's allowed only a 0.36 HR/9, but with his underlying numbers, he should be allowing an above-average amount home runs to righties.
The weather in Baltimore could cause a delay, but the game should play, and the weather should be good for hitting, with WeatherEdge showing a 17% increase to HRs in this game.
I have the true odds here around +225, making this a great bet.
Kyle Stowers Home Run (+450)
Marlins vs Guardians, 6:40 p.m. ET
This is strictly a price play.
The matchup vs. Gavin Williams is just average for home runs, and the Guardians' ballpark is a pretty big upgrade for lefty power, with Stowers going from the 17th-best ballpark in the league for lefty power to the 8th-best ballpark.
Stowers has one of the highest barrel rates in the league this season, and I have the true odds here under +400, making this a good bet.
Juan Soto Home Run (+325)
Braves vs Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET
Juan Soto is in a great spot tonight, and these odds are a bit too high.
Braves' pitcher Carlos Carrasco is well past his prime, and he's been hit hard by lefty power over the last three seasons, giving up about a 1.50 HR/9 in that time frame.
The weather in New York could cause some problems, but RotoGrinders meteorologist Kevin Roth thinks they should play, and WeatherEdge is showing a 20% increase to home runs in this game.
I have the true odds here around +260, making this a great bet.
