We had a solid 2-1 MLB NRFI showing yesterday, a slate in which seemingly every NRFI hit while runs continue to remain down throughout the league.
Sportsbooks have caught on to this phenomena, increasing the prices on NRFIs to the point where my model isn't showing much value. At the same time, low totals across the board make it hard to take any YRFIs.
As such, just one pick falls within my threshold for playable value on Saturday. So let's dive into my top NRFI model prediction for Padres vs Diamondbacks.
MLB NRFI Picks: Model Prediction for Padres vs Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers: Michael King vs. Brandon Pfaadt
This game features one of the lower-juice NRFIs on the slate, thanks to the somewhat high 8.5-run total. However, my model likes the numbers on both pitchers early in games.
Brandon Pfaadt's underlying numbers point to some positive regression for him overall. That's especially true early in games, where his first time through the order ERA is 2.77. Ditto for Michael King, who's first time xFIP and first time ERA are both well below his full game numbers in the same statistic.
It's a bit scary given the quality of both offenses involved, but NRFIs have been hitting at a much higher rate lately and the price is right on this one. I'd gladly take the -120 lines that are widely available here, with some wiggle room for line movement.
However, the over 8.5 runs is getting some steam, so there's an argument for waiting until closer to game time to place this one, as we could get a better price if the total ticks up to nine.
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