We had a nice Sunday, with a three-game sweep on our all-NRFI card.
I have three MLB NRFI picks and model predictions for Monday, May 27.
MLB NRFI Picks: Monday Model Predictions (May 27)
Starting Pitchers: Lance Lynn vs. Nick Lodolo
This is a tricky one because both teams are on the wrong side of their platoon splits against today's starters.
However, it's exceedingly rare to get a YRFI at such a cheap price in a game with a 9.5-run total.
In addition, Lodolo has an ERA over 6.00 in his first time through the order, so that's enough to put me over the top and take this bet.
Starting Pitchers: Mitchell Parker vs. Charlie Morton
The total here is also fairly high relative to the price of the YRFI, this time at nine runs.
Unlike the above game, both teams are on the stronger side of their platoon splits as well.
Parker's ERA and xFIP numbers his first time through the order are worse than overall, which makes this playable even with the loss of Ronald Acuna at the top of Atlatna's lineup.
Starting Pitchers: Trevor Rogers vs. Michael King
This is another example of a game with only one team we're really worried about spoiling the NRFI. Miami's offense is terrible by most metrics, ranking bottom-five in wRC+ against righties and overall. While their best hitters are at the top of the lineup, just two of them (Jazz Chisholm and Bryan de la Cruz) have above-average wRC+ scores, and even then just barely.
This brings us to the Padres' matchup against Rogers.
Rogers is a lefty, and San Diego's wRC+ as a team goes from 118 against righties to 88 against southpaws.
In addition, Rogers' 6.11 ERA is much worse than his 4.27 xFIP, and both numbers improved even more his first time through the order.
Be sure to click over to the "Innings" tab on FanDuel then go to "First Inning Total Runs: 0" to get the best price on this bet.
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