After not finding any value on Sunday (and going 2-2 on Saturday), we're back with a solid slate of first inning bets on Monday. We have a four-pack of picks, all centered around the evening slate.
For the curious, you can find a general explanation of the model process in the link below, as well as information on the updates we made for the 2024 season. Let's get to my MLB NRFI picks from Monday's model predictions for April 8.
MLB NRFI Picks, Odds: Monday Model Predictions (April 8)
With all of the picks below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings. Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
Mets vs. Braves (YRFI): We're paying some juice here, but it's justifiable. The obvious reason is the massive 10-run implied total, but on top of that we a Mets lineup that's strong at the top, plus a Braves lineup that's excellent everywhere. Mets starter Julio Tehran is also a slow starter, with a 4.90 xFIP his first time through the order.
Dodgers vs. Twins (YRFI): Despite the smaller total, my model projects this game to be nearly as likely to have a first inning run as Mets-Braves. That's due to both pitchers having poor early game splits, plus the Dodgers' ridiculously stacked top of the order. Which makes the low-juice odds at ESPN a steal.
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks (YRFI): I typically shy away from the straight YRFI in Coors Field games, but the price is too good to pass up in a game with an 11-run total. Over 1.5 first inning runs at +175 is also a plus-EV option, but I'm showing better value on the standard YRFI this time.
Cubs vs. Padres (NRFI): Our lone NRFI of the day comes in the late game between San Diego and Chicago. It features a 7.5-run implied total, and two lineups that aren't particularly threatening at the top of the order. The Padres' lineup is solid of course, but none of their batters had a wRC in 2023 better than 120. For some context on that number, each of the Dodgers first three hitters cleared 160 last season.
