We closed the workweek strong on Friday, sweeping the board, including the "over 1.5" plus-money YRFI.
We've got four more picks on Saturday across the various MLB slates, including a few more plus-money options.
For the curious, you can find a general explanation of the model process in the link below, as well as information on the updates we made for the 2024 season. Let's get to my MLB NRFI picks in Saturday's model predictions for April 6.
MLB NRFI Picks, Odds: Saturday Model Predictions (April 6)
With all of the picks below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings. Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
Tigers vs. Athletics (YRFI): Oakland starter Paul Blackburn had a 4.79 xFIP his first time through the order last season, considerably higher than his overall numbers. While the Tigers are projected as the likeliest team to score the run, the plus-money on the game YRFI means the EV is better there than on the Tigers-only line.
Guardians vs. Twins (NRFI): This game has an 8.5-run implied total, but both pitchers have solid splits their first time through the order and neither offense is especially threatening at the top.
White Sox vs. Royals (NRFI): I'm a little surprised to see plus-money on the NRFI side of this game. The total is 8.5, and we typically see the NRFI favored when it's under nine runs. Like the above game, both pitchers tend to start fast and these aren't lineups to be scared of.
Braves vs. Diamondbacks (NRFI): Our second plus-money NRFI of the day does feature a nine-run total. It also features Brandon Pfaadt and Max Fried — both of whom have first time through the order xFIPs of right around 3.00. The offenses are better there than in either of the other NRFIs we're taking, but that's why we're getting the better price.
