We had our first losing day of the season on Wednesday, cashing just one of our four bets (with one game rained out) for a 1-3. Thursday is a smaller slate so we have just one pick, which you can find below.
For the curious, you can find a general explanation of the model process in the link below, as well as information on the updates we made for the 2024 season. Let's get to my MLB NRFI picks in Thursday's model predictions for April 4.
MLB NRFI Picks, Odds: Thursday Model Predictions (April 4)
With all of the picks below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings. Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
NRFI Odds, Picks for Thursday, April 4
Pirates vs. Nationals (YRFI): This game has the highest total on the board at nine runs, making it a good starting point for a YRFI. It also has two pitchers with higher xFIP numbers their first time through the order than overall, which should push some of that scoring to early in the game. There's some late start/PPD risk here, but hopefully this game gets played at some point.
