We started the week strong, going 3-1 on Monday and bringing the season record to 26-13 for a profit of just under 15 units. Let's keep it rolling on Tuesday, with three more first-inning picks all in the evening slate.
For the curious, you can find a general explanation of the model process in the link below, as well as information on the updates we made for the 2024 season. Let's get to my MLB NRFI picks from Tuesday's model predictions for April 9.
MLB NRFI Picks, Odds: Tuesday Model Predictions (April 9)
With all of the picks below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings. Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
Dodgers vs. Twins (YRFI): We cashed this bet yesterday and we're going back to it today. Los Angeles will nearly always project as a strong YRFI team, thanks to having three elite hitters at the top of the lineup. The Dodgers draw an opposing pitcher in Louis Varland with reverse early game splits — meaning he's slightly worse his first time through the order than the rest of the game.
Phillies vs. Cardinals (NRFI): The starters for this game are Zack Wheeler and Sonny Gray, both of whom have excellent early game numbers. Both pitchers had first-time-through-the-order xFIPs of under three last season, and the total is just 7.5. That makes this worth paying the juice on the NRFI.
Athletics vs. Rangers (YRFI): This is a strangely cheap price at FanDuel for a game with a nine-run implied total. Especially considering both starters had first time xFIPs of over 4.00 last season, and the strength of the Texas lineup is at the top.
