We finished last week strong with a 2-1 day on Sunday, bringing the overall season record to 37-18. Let's string together another good week starting on Monday, where we have four total bets.
Let's get to my MLB NRFI picks and Monday model predictions for April 15.
MLB NRFI Picks, Odds: Monday Model Predictions (April 15)
With all of the picks below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings.
Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
Twins vs. Orioles (YRFI): This is a solid YRFI price for a game with a nine-run total. The real projection edge, though, is based on the starting pitchers. While neither pitched a full season as a starter last year (limiting our usable sample size), both have first-time-through-the-order xFIPs in the mid fours.
Rockies vs. Phillies (NRFI): The bottom of the inning (when Philadelphia is hitting) is going to be scary, as they're projecting fairly well. However, we're getting plus-money on the NRFI with one team projecting as very unlikely to score, making this a solid value.
Cardinals vs. Athletics (NRFI): Both of the last two bets we're making today are pretty obvious NRFI situations, with the question coming down to how much juice you want to pay. The total in this one is 7.5, with two starters who feature very strong first inning performance, and two relatively non-threatening lineups.
Reds vs. Mariners (NRFI): I typically don't suggest parlaying NRFI picks (or almost any other type of bet) but I'm willing to make an exception here. If you're betting these last two NRFIs at BetMGM — which has the best line on both — I'd consider parlaying them together. Of course, straight bets on both are fine too. This game has an even lower total at seven runs, with very strong starting pitching.
